ConocoPhillips Trades Below Pre-War Level as Q2 Earnings Near

ConocoPhillips stock is now cheaper than it was just before Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. Brent crude has fallen from above $120 a barrel in June of that year to roughly $80 now. The slide has pulled the whole sector down with it.

Chevron and Exxon Mobil are in the same territory. All three major U.S. oil producers have given back the gains they made during the energy shock that followed the invasion.

The next catalyst is the second-quarter earnings report, expected in the coming weeks. ConocoPhillips last reported adjusted earnings of $1.86 a share in Q1, down from $2.15 a year earlier. Production rose to 1.96 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 135 percent jump from a year earlier, driven largely by the Marathon Oil acquisition.

Wall Street will be watching whether production stays at that level and what management says about capital spending. The company's cash flow from operations hit $4.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with $4.8 billion a year ago, reflecting lower realized prices.

ConocoPhillips has not yet set an exact date for the Q2 release.

Why the stock is below pre-war levels is not complicated – oil is $80, not $120. The bigger question is whether the current price already reflects a bearish scenario for crude or leaves room for a rally if production surprises to the upside.

AlphaScala's model rates the stock at 38 out of 100, a Mixed label that means no clear directional bias from the data. Chevron scores 42, Exxon 49. None of the three flags a strong buy or sell signal at this level.

For ConocoPhillips, the earnings call will matter more than most. If the company keeps production at Q1 rates and maintains its share buyback pace – $2.2 billion in the first quarter – the stock could draw buyers who see the current level as too low for a firm generating that kind of cash. If guidance comes in light, the gap to pre-war levels could widen.

Traders will have a clear line to watch: a beat and the stock likely retakes the territory it lost since mid-2023. A miss and the trend lower continues.