CLARITY Act Senate Vote Expected Mid-July, Arca Analyst Says

Nage proposed a clean, across-the-board prohibition on crypto business activity applying to the President, the Vice President, the entire senior executive branch, and all of Congress, with no exceptions. “Make it about the office, not the officeholder,” he wrote.

The stablecoin yield provision, once a major point of contention, is no longer a live obstacle, Nage said. The banking industry’s opposition has effectively run its course. “The staffers I met simply do not treat yield as a live obstacle anymore,” he wrote. “The compromise even ships with a multi-agency study on deposit impact.”

Nage’s base case assumes a compromise on ethics language before the July recess. Congress returns on July 13. After that, a Senate floor vote could come in mid-to-late July.

If no resolution is reached before the recess, the practical window for 2026 closes. “We’ll get it next Congress could quietly become we’ll get it next decade,” Nage warned. Senator Cynthia Lummis also flagged the risk that if the bill fails to pass this Congress, it could be delayed to 2030.

The next concrete marker is the recess deadline. If the ethics language is settled before July 13, the vote window opens. If not, the bill likely waits until the next Congress.