Kalshi odds for CLARITY Act passage before 2027 dropped to 50% after a week-long slide. The banking lobby's stance on yield-bearing stablecoins is now the key variable.
Alpha Score of 53 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
The probability of the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 dropped from nearly 75% to 50% in a single week, according to Kalshi data reported May 23. The slide reflects growing friction between crypto-friendly lawmakers and entrenched banking interests as the bill moves toward a floor vote with amendments still pending.
The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill by a 15-9 vote on May 14. That committee win came with a requirement for numerous amendments before the full Senate takes it up. The amendment pipeline creates multiple choke points where opposition can slow or reshape the legislation. Senator Cynthia Lummis, the bill’s lead sponsor, framed the delay as a scaling challenge. “Wyoming didn’t wait for Washington to figure out digital assets,” she said. “We built the framework ourselves. I didn’t come to the U.S. Senate to slow that down, I came here to scale it.”
The most concrete obstacle is the banking lobby’s push to ban stablecoins that generate yield. JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum publicly warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could disrupt established banking models. Analysts have raised concerns that these products would upset traditional deposit relationships. If banks lose low-cost deposits to yield-bearing crypto products, lending margins compress and the broader financial system faces adjustment costs. The CLARITY Act’s treatment of yield is now the central negotiating point in the amendment process.
The 50% Kalshi probability for passage before 2027 is a conservative read. It accounts for the full amendment pipeline, banking lobby influence, and a compressed legislative calendar. Polymarket odds tell a different short-term story. The probability of passage in 2026 rose 16% over the past month to 65%. That increase followed Lummis’s remarks. The gap between the two platforms reflects disagreement over how much the amendment process will change the bill. If the yield-bearing stablecoin ban survives in the reported bill, passage odds should converge toward the lower end. If the ban is dropped or narrowed, the higher Polymarket figure becomes the better reference.
For traders watching this bill, the next decision point is the final committee markup. The Senate Banking Committee’s final amendment list will determine the path. A yield ban in that list would narrow the bill’s chances. Without it, the 50% Kalshi probability likely reprices higher within days.
JPMorgan Chase carries an Alpha Score of 53/100 (Mixed) at its current price of $306.38, up 1.12% today. The bank’s public stance on stablecoin yield is consistent with its interest in protecting deposit franchises. A CLARITY Act that permits yield-bearing stablecoins would challenge JPMorgan’s cost of funds. Its lobbying effort is a rational hedge rather than a philosophical objection. See the JPM stock page for more. The broader crypto market analysis section tracks how regulatory signals flow into asset prices.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.