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Business cycle shift signals altcoin season, says van de Poppe
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says improving business cycle signals altcoin season; copper/gold ratio and ETH/BTC above 0.035 are key confirmations.
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Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has identified a shift in the business cycle as a signal for an altcoin season. The thesis rests on improving risk appetite, a copper-to-gold ratio breakout, and a potential rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and select altcoins. For traders building a watchlist, the setup offers a concrete framework but carries significant macro and legislative risks.
The Signal: Business Cycle as Altcoin Catalyst
Van de Poppe argues that the business cycle has trended lower for more than four years, a period that closely matches Ethereum's underperformance against Bitcoin. In his view, investors become more willing to buy higher-risk assets when they feel better about future growth. He pointed to gold, oil, and yields as signs that markets may be close to a regime change.
The Copper-Gold Ratio as a Leading Indicator
Van de Poppe highlighted the copper-to-gold ratio. Copper often tracks industrial demand, while gold tends to rise when investors seek safety. A stronger copper trend against gold can signal better risk appetite. He linked that setup to Ethereum's performance against Bitcoin. His view is that if copper breaks out against gold, Ethereum could follow Bitcoin within one to three months. This remains a market thesis, not a confirmed outcome.
ETH/BTC Recovery and Confirmation Levels
Earlier reports support the cautious part of the thesis. crypto.news reported that the ETH/BTC ratio recovered to 0.0313 in April, its strongest level since January. Still, analysts said ETH needs a weekly close above 0.035 to confirm stronger rotation. That level acts as a clear trigger for traders watching the pair.
The Timeline: One to Three Months for Rotation
Van de Poppe's one-to-three-month window for a potential altcoin rotation depends on the copper-gold ratio breaking out. The timeline is short enough to be actionable but long enough to be vulnerable to macro shocks. Traders should monitor the ratio weekly. A sustained rise in copper relative to gold would support the thesis. A reversal would weaken it.
Altcoin Leadership Remains Uneven
Altcoins also remain uneven. crypto.news reported that capital in early 2026 has favored payment tokens, exchange ecosystems, high-throughput chains, and derivatives infrastructure, rather than weaker long-tail tokens. That matches Van de Poppe's view that only selected altcoins may lead the early phase. A broad altcoin rally is not the base case.