Van de Poppe: 1% of altcoins survive as altseason fades

Prominent crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe warned on May 16 that most altcoins are unlikely to survive long term. In an X post, he argued that the market is moving away from broad-based altseason rallies and that only a small fraction of tokens have genuine utility or sustainable economic value. Many projects, he said, were created mainly to benefit founders, venture capital firms, or market makers rather than build meaningful blockchain ecosystems.

Van de Poppe estimated that only about 1% of existing altcoins have the fundamentals needed to remain relevant over time. The traditional altseason, where most smaller cryptocurrencies rally simultaneously, may never return in the same form. Instead, capital will concentrate around a smaller group of stronger projects tied to innovative blockchain ecosystems or dominant market narratives.

Why the Altseason Model Is Breaking Down

The Altcoin Season Index stood at 24 as of May 18, well below the 75 level typically associated with a full altcoin season. That reading means only a limited number of top cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) over the past 90 days. Although the index has fluctuated in the low-to-mid 30s in recent weeks, analysts say the market has yet to show convincing signs of a broad rotation into altcoins.

Bitcoin Dominance Near 60% Caps Rotation

Bitcoin dominance has remained near 60%, supported by continued institutional inflows through exchange-traded funds and a growing preference for the asset as a digital store of value amid cautious market sentiment. That dominance cap makes it difficult for altcoins to stage a sustained rally without a clear catalyst to weaken Bitcoin's grip.

Institutional Preference for BTC Skips Small Tokens

Institutional money has largely bypassed smaller tokens. The ETF channel funnels capital directly into Bitcoin, reinforcing its position as the primary crypto asset. Van de Poppe's thesis aligns with this flow data: if institutions are not rotating into altcoins, the broad-based altseason model breaks down. Observers also note that the current cycle differs significantly from the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, where capital flooded nearly all digital assets. Now, capital has largely concentrated in established large-cap altcoins and sectors tied to strong narratives.

Van de Poppe's 1% Test: What Separates Winners

Van de Poppe's framework for survival rests on three criteria:

• Genuine utility – tokens that solve a real problem or enable a functional network.
• Sustainable economic value – a token model that does not rely on perpetual inflation or founder dumps.
• Ecosystem growth – active development, user adoption, and community engagement.