Antitrust Bill on App Stores Could Hit Apple Services Revenue

Apple shares fell 2.3% Wednesday after the House Judiciary Committee released a draft bill that would force iPhone users to download apps from outside the App Store. The legislation targets Apple's 30% commission on in-app purchases, a margin that generated roughly $25 billion in Services revenue last year.

A policy analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors said the bill could cut that stream by 15% if it becomes law. “The commission structure is the biggest single profit pool in the broader App Store business,” John Smith said. “A sideloading mandate would let developers bypass it entirely.”

Apple has argued that sideloading weakens device security and exposes users to malware. The company's public filings cite the App Store's closed ecosystem as a core differentiator. An Apple spokesperson said the company is reviewing the draft and will engage with lawmakers.

The committee plans to mark up the bill on June 12. No date has been set for a floor vote. For investors tracking the stock market analysis, the timeline remains the key variable: a stalled bill leaves the commission model intact, while a successful markup opens the path to a floor vote later this year.