AlphaScala Daily: Core PCE at 8:30, Nike cluster buy

Good morning.

Core PCE and the prelim GDP revision both hit at 8:30, so expect a thin tape until the print clears. Gold slipped to 4,627 overnight and bitcoin held near 78,400, while the signal tape lit up on the buy side: four Nike insiders picked up a net $2.17M over 30 days, and ten TSMC insiders added shares. Flywire tops the model at an Alpha Score of 85, with Newmont close behind at 82. On the Hill, Ed Case bought Apple and Tim Moore sold AT&T. Here's what matters.

Markets

• XAU/USD 4,627.27 ▼ -0.67% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 2,460.58 ▲ +0.73% (ETH)

Today's calendar

• United States: Prelim GDP q/q
• United States: Core PCE Price Index m/m

Deal Flow

IPOs / Listings

• Rays of Belief IPO to fund 319 new centres across India (BL) The for-profit social enterprise behind Mom's Belief sets ₹227-239 price band for its ₹125 crore IPO, with anchor bidding on Aug 31. Proceeds will add 319 centres by FY29.

Funding Rounds

• Airbound Raises $37M Led by Greenoaks for Drone Delivery (Mint) Airbound raised $37M from Greenoaks, Lightspeed, DoorDash Labs and Lachy Groom. The startup plans 10,000 daily delivery drone flights in India.

Debt

• India's First Tokenized Bond Sale to Settle in Digital Rupee (Crypto news) REC's pilot bond sale, under 5 billion rupees ($57 million), tests DLT settlement via the wholesale digital rupee. Secondary trading targets December.

Funds

• SEC subpoenas banks over AI hedge fund Situational Awareness near-collapse (CNBC) The SEC is probing banks' role in the $45B AI hedge fund's meltdown after margin calls forced a fire sale. Citadel bought the positions at a 10% discount.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Why Nvidia's Customer Mix Is the Real Story This Quarter (CNBC) A $500bn chip-financing plan and surging ACIE demand may shift the narrative away from hyperscaler dependence. Vera Rubin shipments add upside.
• Nvidia earnings: can the AI king beat $92B quarterly sales? (CNBC) Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday with $92B in sales expected. The AI king has beaten forecasts every quarter, but shares sold off each time. Can Jensen Huang's team clear the bar…

Macro

• Amazon keeps betting on Canada as tariffs complicate the math (BI) Amazon expects Canadian package volume to grow faster than in the US through 2029, even as new US tariffs and Canadian retaliation reshape its supply chain.
• Roubini Says Higher Bond Yields Signal Growth, Not Recession Risk (Mint) The NYU economist argues rising yields reflect an AI-driven capex boom, not stagflation, and are a positive signal for US equities and growth.
• Australia's CPI Misses Forecast, RBA Hike Risk Rises (Theconversation) Australian headline inflation eased to 3.5% in July but the RBA's preferred trimmed mean held at 3.6%, keeping the door open for another rate hike. Markets price a steady…

Stocks

• Pets at Home's Pet Pals programme reaches one million children (Retailtimes) Pets at Home's Pet Pals programme has educated one million children. In the past year, 132,303 attended workshops, with attendance rates rising to 75%.
• Poundstretcher launches price campaign after 15 store openings (Retailgazette) Poundstretcher launches 'Love the Brands. Love the Price' campaign with a £2.50-off coupon and prices from 69p, claiming discounts of up to 30% versus supermarkets. The push…
• India's caste census debate exposes AI bias risk for fintech lenders (Mint) A Cabinet decision to include caste in Census 2027 reignites concerns over AI-driven inference in credit scoring and hiring, with researchers showing algorithms already slot…
• Bill Bengen Says 4% Rule Is Not a Panacea for Retirement (Investorsalley) Bill Bengen, creator of the 4% retirement withdrawal rule, said the rule applies only to a narrow segment of retirees and was never intended as a panacea for safe income planning.
• Identity Attackers Now Read Trust Maps, Not Defenses (Forbes) Unosecur CEO Santhosh Jayaprakash says attackers target stale OAuth tokens and vendor integrations, not perimeter controls, citing Vercel and Snowflake breaches.
• Only Duterte, ex-security officer knew about OVP fund use, witness says (Manilatimes) A prosecution witness said only VP Sara Duterte and her former security officer knew how P500M in OVP confidential funds were spent. COA found no misuse, the witness added. The…
• Webull HK Launches Vega AI, an AI-Powered Smart Investment Platform (Manilatimes) Webull HK's new AI tool connects market analysis, company research, and trade execution in one workflow, with CEO Wang Haichen calling it a shift from professional trading to…
• Dolly Parton dies at 80, leaving a legacy of purpose and drive (BI) Dolly Parton died at 80. She told People days before her death she still had achievements left. Her philosophy reflected qualities tied to healthy aging.

Crypto

• GENIUS Act stablecoin rules miss deadline as agencies write them anyway (Crypto news) OCC expects final stablecoin rule by November after Congress' one-year deadline passed. Tether's USDT faces potential U.S. exit without Treasury reciprocity determination by July…
• Agency rulemaking replaces stalled Clarity Act as crypto path (Crypto news) Clarity Act odds collapse to 16% as SEC, FASB, OCC propose rules that don't need a vote. Senate returns Sept. 14 with 14 working days and three unresolved disputes.
• ECB official defends digital euro privacy as rights groups push for technical safeguards (Crypto news) Digital euro privacy protections would prevent the Eurosystem from linking users to specific payments, ECB's Piero Cipollone said. Rights groups push for independently verifiable…
• Kraken Froze Accounts After HTX-Linked Dust Attack Hit 12,000 Customers (Dailycoin) Kraken locked some accounts after 12,000 dust transfers from HTX-linked wallets triggered compliance freezes. The exchange restored access but still holds funds subject to…
• PolySwarm's NCT surges 200% on Upbit KRW listing (Crypto news) NCT token gained 200% after Upbit announced a Korean won pair. Trading starts 9 p.m. KST with order restrictions and a 24-hour zero-fee period.
• Kraken: 12,000 HTX Dust Transfers Locked Customer Accounts (Unchained) Roughly 12,000 dust transfers from HTX wallets tripped Kraken screening, freezing accounts. The tactic weaponizes compliance. EU sanctions took effect Aug. 23.
• Why Revolut's Euro Stablecoin Launch Starts With Distribution (Coinspress) EURR is issued by Stripe-owned Bridge, not Revolut. With 80 million customers, the euro stablecoin's first test is the EEA rollout later this year.
• Profit Connect founder convicted over $24M AI crypto fraud (CryptoSlate) A federal jury convicted Brent C. Kovar on 15 fraud counts for claiming an AI supercomputer mined crypto. Sentencing is Nov. 30.

Forex / Commodities

• Hindustan Copper OFS Opens for Retail After 3.41x Institutional Bid (BL) The government's 6% stake sale in Hindustan Copper via OFS opens for retail investors at ₹514 floor price after institutional oversubscription of 3.41 times.
• India Airlines May Keep Fares High Despite Easing Fuel Costs (BL) S&P Global Ratings says resilient passenger demand in Asia-Pacific gives carriers room to keep fares high, supporting margins through volatile fuel costs.
• Indian refiners to avoid Iran blacklist tankers on security fears (Hindu) Indian refiners plan to stop using vessels on Iran's new 45-ship blacklist for Middle Eastern crude transfers, citing security risks. The move could tighten available tanker…
• PCE Data and Nvidia Earnings Set the Tone for FX, Gold (FXEmpire) PCE print and Nvidia earnings after the close are the week's biggest catalysts, with the dollar overstretched and gold near three-month highs.
• German Ifo Rebound Lifts Eurozone Outlook as PCE Data Looms (Action Forex) German Ifo surges past forecasts, adding to evidence of a rebound in the eurozone's largest economy. All eyes on the U.S. PCE print due this afternoon.
• DuPont Debuts Tyvek APX 400 at OGA 2026 (BL) DuPont (DD) debuts Tyvek APX 400 at OGA 2026 in Kuala Lumpur, featuring integrated protection solutions with Bullard and PolyScientific for oil and gas safety.
• Fincantieri's Slow Upside Reflects Defense Backlog, Analyst Says (SA) An analyst covering Fincantieri (FNCNF) sees a slow but started upside, citing defense exposure and backlog. The stock trades OTC.
• RBNZ Expected to Hike 25bp, Data-Pivot on October (Action Forex) The RBNZ is set to deliver a 25bp hike to 2.75%, but the outlook beyond September hinges on incoming data as the OCR approaches the neutral rate.

Smart Money

• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE IBP
• Tim Moore (R-NC): SALE T
• Ed Case (D-HI): PURCHASE AAPL
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE GOOGL
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 85/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 85 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: NEM (Newmont Corporation), Alpha Score 82/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 82 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, weak sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: BRAI (Braiin Ltd), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): large speculators net short 158,166 contracts, 44.0% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): large speculators net short 32,620 contracts, 36.6% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): large speculators net long 79,452 contracts, 27.9% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Nasdaq: Nasdaq 100 drops 2.3% as Bitcoin rallies 20%; GOOGL top Alpha pick

See you tomorrow before the bell.