AlphaScala Weekly: Silver rips 9%, gold hits $4,342, KGC scores

Good morning,

Precious metals ran the tape this week. Silver jumped 9.2% to $63.55 and gold added 7.1% to $4,342, dragging the miners with them, KGC (79) and HBM (78) both near the top of the AlphaScala model. Stocks came along quietly, with QQQ up 3.3% and SPY up 2%, while WTI slipped 3.1% to $76.37. Ten insiders bought TSM in 30 days, four bought NKE for a net $2.17M, and Rep. April McClain Delaney disclosed a five-name buying run from CHRW to BWXT. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The story was metals, and it wasn't close. Silver's 9.2% week and gold's 7.1% push to a $4,342 handle pulled the gold names to the front of the model, with KGC at 79 and HBM at 78. Equities rode the same risk-on current without the drama: QQQ +3.3%, SPY +2%, IWM +1.8%. Crude went the other way, WTI off 3.1% to $76.37, one of the few red prints on the board.

The dollar leaked lower across the majors. EUR/USD firmed 0.45% and GBP/USD 0.43%, AUD/USD led the pack up 0.95%, and USD/CAD fell 0.69%. That soft-dollar backdrop lines up cleanly with the bid in gold and silver. Crypto tagged along at the edges, BTC +2.3% near $65,000 and ETH +3.1% to $1,918.

Under the surface, the insider tape leaned into names outside the metals trade. NKE drew four buyers for a net $2.17M over 90 days, TSM saw a ten-insider cluster, and SPG picked up three. FLYW topped the Alpha Score board at 84, ahead of the gold miners. On the political side, Delaney's disclosed purchases spanned CHRW, FWONK, LTH, BWXT and ENTG, a broad sweep rather than a single conviction bet.

Markets this week

Indices

• QQQ 723.02 ▲ +3.28% from 700.07
• SPY 773.12 ▲ +2.04% from 757.67
• IWM 301.50 ▲ +1.78% from 296.22
• DIA 539.60 ▲ +1.58% from 531.22

Crypto

• ETH/USD 1,917.81 ▲ +3.08% from 1,860.5
• BTC/USD 65,000.48 ▲ +2.33% from 63,520

Commodities

• XAG/USD 63.55 ▲ +9.21% from 58.19
• XAU/USD 4,342.25 ▲ +7.08% from 4,055.31
• WTI/USD 76.37 ▼ -3.06% from 78.78

FX

• AUD/USD 0.7067 ▲ +0.95% from 0.7001
• EUR/JPY 182.45 ▲ +0.85% from 180.92
• GBP/JPY 212.93 ▲ +0.83% from 211.18
• USD/CAD 1.39 ▼ -0.69% from 1.40
• EUR/USD 1.16 ▲ +0.45% from 1.15
• GBP/USD 1.35 ▲ +0.43% from 1.34
• NZD/USD 0.5895 ▲ +0.40% from 0.5871
• USD/JPY 157.83 ▲ +0.40% from 157.20

Deal Flow

M&A

• 8th Pay Commission: How Fitment Factor and DA Hike Could Boost Salaries (Mint) The 8th CPC has closed stakeholder submissions. DA merger and fitment factor of 2.28 to 3.83 could drive salary hikes for 1 crore beneficiaries by 2027.
• How Qorvo's $22 Billion Merger Changes What Its Insider Filings Mean (Yahoo) The August 5 insider sale was a tax event, not a signal. With Qorvo being acquired by Skyworks in a $22 billion deal, the real variable is whether the merger closes on schedule.
• Qorvo Insider Tax Withholding: No Signal in Skyworks Deal (Yahoo) Qorvo SVP Paul Fego had 3,944 shares withheld for taxes. Seven insiders saw similar moves. With Skyworks acquisition pending, the stock's fate hinges on the merger, not insider…
• SentinelOne President Sells Shares for Taxes, Retains $15M Stake (Yahoo) Ana Pinczuk sold 6,230 shares to cover RSU taxes but retains $15.3M in stock. SentinelOne reports earnings this month; last quarter revenue rose 21% to $277M.

IPOs / Listings

• Bithumb Targets 2028 IPO After Two-Year Compliance Overhaul (CoinPedia) Bithumb targets 2028 IPO after a two-year compliance overhaul, switching to global accounting standards and strengthening internal controls before filing for a preliminary review…
• Bithumb Targets 2028 IPO as Regulatory Scrutiny Mounts (Coincu) South Korea's Bithumb pushes IPO target to 2028, citing regulatory scrutiny per Korean reports. No venue or financials confirmed. The timeline is provisional.
• Bithumb Sets 2028 IPO Roadmap Amid Legal Challenges (Decrypt) Bithumb plans a 2028 IPO via a three-stage process, starting with internal controls and K-IFRS adoption. The exchange faces a $24.5M fine, a CEO bribery probe, and a disputed…
• Bithumb Eyes 2028 IPO as Bitget Exits Japan (Coinspress) Bithumb is overhauling governance for a post-2028 IPO while Bitget exits Japan entirely. The split shows how compliance costs now decide where exchanges operate.
• Bithumb targets 2028 IPO after internal restructuring (CoinDesk) Bithumb targets 2028 IPO after restructuring. The exchange plans risk management upgrades by end-2026, with a preliminary review in 2027. CEO admitted internal control flaws after…
• Bithumb Maps 2028 IPO After $43B Error, Regulatory Overhaul (Coingape) Bithumb targets 2028 IPO after recovering from a $43B Bitcoin error. The exchange is overhauling governance ahead of South Korea's 22% crypto gains tax taking effect in January…
• Bithumb targets 2028 IPO with governance overhaul (Crypto news) Bithumb outlined a three-year IPO roadmap for 2028, with K-IFRS conversion, a Bithumb Asset spin-off, and regular crypto holdings disclosure, as it works through privacy and AML…
• McEwen Q2 Misses on Production; Gold Bar Fixes, Los Azules Advance (Yahoo) McEwen Mining Q2 operations fell short on production and costs at Gold Bar due to carbonaceous ore. The company outlined recovery fixes, Los Azules financing and an IPO target.

Debt

• Why Investors Are Piling Into CLO ETFs Now (Profitconfidential) Demand for collateralized loan obligation ETFs is rising as the Fed holds rates steady, with asset managers launching new products and advisors adding short-duration income…

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Palantir and Amazon: Analysts Raise Targets After Strong Q2 (CNBC) Palantir raised its full-year guidance after U.S. commercial revenue surged 134% in Q2. Analysts also boosted Amazon and Lam Research targets, citing AI-driven demand and strong…
• Griffon COO Sold $3.8M of Stock, Still Holds $80M After Earnings Jump (Yahoo) Griffon's COO sold $3.8 million in stock after earnings, but keeps $80 million in shares. The company's new leverage target and reaffirmed guidance give context to the move.
• Griffon CEO Sells $10.2M in Shares After Earnings Beat (Yahoo) Griffon CEO Ronald Kramer sold 100,000 shares into a post-earnings pop, cashing out $10.2 million as the company reported a swing to profit.
• Orion's Q2: Specialty EBITDA Nearly Doubles, Rubber Falls 61% (Yahoo) Orion's Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $58M beat sequentially but fell 15% YoY. Specialty segment EBITDA nearly doubled to $39M, offsetting a 61% drop in Rubber. Management raised FCF…
• Once Upon a Farm Sales Surge 42%, Lifts Full-Year Outlook (Yahoo) Once Upon a Farm Q2 net sales rose 42.3% to $85.4M, beating estimates. The company raised its full-year outlook. Baby sales surged 73%, kid sales up 22%.
• Owens Corning Q2: $3.93 EPS, $660M EBITDA, Roofing Margin to Slip (Yahoo) Owens Corning beat Q2 estimates with $3.93 EPS and $660M EBITDA. Third-quarter outlook points to weaker roofing margins and a 20-22% EBITDA margin companywide.
• New York Times Adds 280K Subscribers, Digital Ads Jump 20.7% (Yahoo) NYT's subscriber base hit 13.4M after a 280K Q2 gain. Q3 guidance: digital-only subscription revenue up 12%-15% and digital ads in the mid-to-high teens.

Macro

• Delhi Healthcare Crisis Deepens After ₹650 Crore CPA Scam (BL) Hospitals face shortages after Delhi's procurement halt following ₹650 crore scam. Warehouse damage and local purchase reliance raise risks. Government reviews contracts.
• BOQ Shares: PE 16.1x vs Sector 19x Points to $7.98 Target (Raskmedia) BOQ's sector-adjusted PE of $7.98 and DDM range of $7.19-$7.40 suggest the stock is undervalued. Full franking boosts gross valuation to $10.57.

Stocks

• Power Grid Lags Behind India's $250 Billion Data Centre Push (Mint) Transmission infrastructure takes 3-4 years while data centres are built in 12-18 months, creating a standoff over who pays for upgrades. States race to install new sub-stations.
• EU Hits Temu Owner With Obstruction Case Over Subsidy Probe (Yahoo) EU alleges Temu obstructed a foreign-subsidies inspection in Dublin, risking a fine of up to 1% of PDD's global turnover. Temu denies the claims.
• AI Rogue Agents: Who Bears Liability for Breaches (RTE) OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta reported AI agents breaching other companies' systems. Legal experts weigh negligence, CFAA, and California's new law as courts grapple with intent.
• Foldable iPhone: durability, status, and an unclear job (Asymco) Asymco's Horace Dediu questions the foldable iPhone's purpose, citing durability and price risks while acknowledging early sales could be driven by status appeal.
• DJ to Meta tech lead: 13-year career ends in layoff (BI) Henry Chen, 38, lost his Meta job May 20 after 13 years, a path from DJ to tech lead. He's brushing up on system design with a coach before returning to the job market.
• Why Minimalist Travel Habits Signal a Shift in Consumer Spending (BI) A minimalist traveler reveals how wearing the same outfit for all workouts signals a shift in consumer priorities toward versatility and affordability over brand loyalty.
• I Work From Home, and Our Family Helps With Childcare. We're Still Choosing Part-Time Day Care. (BI) Juggling work and childcare with family help wasn't enough. This mom explains why she's enrolling her 18-month-old in part-time day care, guilt included.
• Office Shorts Poll Shows 55% Say No as LinkedIn Votes Top 7,000 (BI) A LinkedIn poll of 7,000+ votes finds 55% say shorts are not office-appropriate, while Adam Mosseri and some journalists test the dress code.
• European Carmakers Face Choice on China, Emerging Markets (Mint) A Bloomberg column argues European automakers must shift focus from China to the world's next billion drivers or risk losing those markets to Chinese EV rivals like BYD and Geely.
• Former Harvard Dean Warns Wealthy Parents Against Admissions Sabotage (BI) Ex-Harvard admissions dean Drusilla Blackman says copying neighbors and over-managing kids backfires. Her advice: family talks, authenticity, and letting passions lead.
• Nissan's AI Cameras Track Worker Movements, Cut Injury Costs (BI) Nissan's Canton, Mississippi plant uses AI cameras to flag unsafe bending and posture, saving about $34 million. The system expands to Smyrna, Tennessee next.
• Ikea Buyback Hits 53,000 Items as Resale Goes Chainwide (BI) Ikea's buyback program hits 53,000 items five years in, with chainwide US availability by September. Bargain hunters and design collectors drive resale growth.

Crypto

• South Africa Brings Crypto Under Cross-Border Capital Rules (Crypto Briefing) Draft rules replace the 1961 Exchange Control Regulations after a High Court ruling left crypto in a regulatory gap. Fines reach R1 million. Comments due June 30.
• Tokenized QQQ drove 288% of July volume; Robinhood Chain bets on it (Crypto news) Tokenized QQQB drove July's 288% volume jump. Robinhood's free-gas window ends Sept. 30, and the DTCC's tokenized network follows in October.
• Stolen Crypto's 45-Day Laundering Window (Bitcoin) Less than 5% of the $1.5 billion Bybit hack was recovered. Here is how the 45-day laundering cycle works and why the freeze window is shrinking.
• Senate Schedules CLARITY Act Vote for Sept. 15 After Cloture (Blockonomi) Thune filed cloture at 4:52 a.m. ET after an overnight session; the Sept. 15 vote needs 60 yeses with ethics disputes and Hawley's opposition unresolved.
• BlackRock drew $896.5M into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs (Finbold) BlackRock captured 80% of spot Bitcoin ETF flows and 83% of Ethereum ETF flows last week, pulling in $896.5M combined. Prices rose alongside.
• Brazil sets 24-hour hold on $10,000 crypto transfers (Crypto news) Brazil's central bank mandates a 24-hour hold on crypto transfers above $10,000 to foreign providers or self-custody wallets, effective Jan. 1, 2027, as part of anti-fraud…
• Why crypto 'audited' badges give investors a false sense of security (CryptoSlate) The Bybit $1.46B hack exposed how "audited" badges mask gaps between code review and real security. A new study shows 49.6% of losses come from human vectors audits miss.
• Crypto Curbs Would Undermine Oversight, VALR CEO Warns (Bitcoin) VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani said proposed cross-border crypto rules would drive transactions offshore, reducing the surveillance authorities seek. Public comment open through Sept. 30.
• Brazil targets crypto fraud with up to 24-hour transfer hold (CT) Brazil’s central bank will require crypto providers to hold transfers above $10,000 to foreign platforms or self-custody wallets for up to 24 hours, starting Jan. 1, 2027.
• CLARITY Act faces Sept. 15 test as Grayscale sees low odds (Crypto news) Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the CLARITY Act. The bill needs 60 votes to clear a Sept. 15 procedural vote. Grayscale research says passage odds are low this…
• Senate Schedules Sept. 15 Cloture Vote on Crypto Bill (Tokenpost) Senate advances crypto market structure bill with Sept. 15 cloture vote. Large BTC deposits to Binance, BIP-110 fork warning, and phishing losses add to market uncertainty.
• CySEC to Audit Crypto Custodians Starting H2 2026 (Bitcoin) CySEC will conduct on-site inspections of crypto custodians from H2 2026 through mid-2027, targeting operational security and private key management.

Forex / Commodities

• Natural Gas Downtrend Holds Despite LNG-Backed Bounce Above $2.61 (FXEmpire) September natural gas bounced above $2.61 on stronger LNG feedgas and hot weather, but storage at 6.7% above the five-year average keeps sellers in control. The next EIA storage…
• Jamalco unplugs from grid, power turbine set to save up to US$28m a year (Jamaica-gleaner) Century Aluminum's Jamalco refinery now runs on self-generated power, saving up to US$28m a year. CEO Gary called it a "significant step change" in cost structure.
• China July PPI Slows to 3.5% as Oil Shock Fades (Financialpost) China's PPI slowed to 3.5% in July as oil costs eased from war highs. Consumer inflation also cooled, reopening deflation concerns. Iran-Oman talks progress.
• OR Royalties Q2: Revenue Surges 62%, Malartic Disruption Weighs (Yahoo) OR Royalties Q2 revenue rose 62% to $97.8M, but a Canadian Malartic rock wall movement could cost up to 7,500 GEOs annually from 2027. Management maintains guidance.
• Nuclear Stocks: Two Sell Fuel, Three Sell a Construction Timeline (Yahoo) Cameco and Centrus book revenue from uranium sales, while Oklo, NuScale and Nano Nuclear trade on cash and milestones. Their combined $12B market value vs $12M revenue shows the…
• Navigator Reports Record Q2, Expects Q3 to Ease (Yahoo) Navigator Q2 net income rose to $53M, EBITDA hit $101.6M, and TCE rates reached a record $33,946/day. Management sees Q3 easing from peak levels.
• CMC Investor Day Spotlights Strategy, Long-Term Growth (SA) CEO Peter Matt outlined CMC's strategy to drive long-term value through operational excellence. The event featured presentations from all business segments.
• NACCO Industries Swings to Q2 Loss on Solar Impairment (Yahoo) NACCO swung to a $1M net loss in Q2 after $12M in solar impairment charges. CEO Butler said asset sales are under review. Utility coal mining profit jumped.
• BHP's 19.7% ROE Contrasts MIN's $125M Profit Slump (Raskmedia) BHP's FY24 edge: 19.7% ROE and 6.9% average yield support the blue-chip case. MIN profit fell to $125m despite 12.2% revenue growth. Alpha Score 74.

Smart Money

• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE CHRW
• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE FWONK
• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE LTH
• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE BWXT
• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE ENTG
• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE LTH
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 84/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 84 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.), Alpha Score 78/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 78 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, weak sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: STGW (Stagwell Inc), Alpha Score 78/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 78 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 179,095 contracts, 49.1% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 41,203 contracts, 40.4% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 76,543 contracts, 35.2% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.