AlphaScala Daily: Claims at 8:30, NKE cluster buy in focus

Good morning.

Risk is leaking this morning: ETH is off 1.9% to $1,881, BTC down 0.9% near $64,200, and gold slipped 0.9% to $4,024. Four Nike insiders bought a net $2.17M over the last 90 days, the loudest print on the signal tape, while ten TSM insiders combined for a much smaller $45K net. US jobless claims hit at 8:30, with UK monthly GDP already on the wire. KeyCorp and Kinross tied for the top Alpha Score at 79. Here's what matters.

Markets

• GBP/USD 1.35 ▼ -0.25% (GBP)
• XAU/USD 4,023.97 ▼ -0.90% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,881.03 ▼ -1.92% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 64,162.79 ▼ -0.92% (BTC)

Today's calendar

• United States: Unemployment Claims
• United Kingdom: GDP m/m

Deal Flow

M&A

• Aduro Launches Dedicated Therapy Benefit for Self-Insured Employers (Prweb) Aduro acquires Trusana, launches mental health benefit with employed therapists, not rented networks, for self-insured employers. The care connects to physical health.
• Stripe, Advent Offer $53 Billion for PayPal in Blockbuster Deal (Bitcoin) Stripe and Advent bid $53B for PayPal, uniting two stablecoin giants. The offer is a 28% premium but far below PayPal's pandemic peak. Board decision and antitrust review ahead.
• Man Group Discloses 1% AMG Stake in Takeover Code Filing (Manilatimes) Man Group PLC filed a Form 8.3 disclosure under the Takeover Code, revealing a 1%+ stake in AMG Critical Materials N.V. The filing covers interests and positions

IPOs / Listings

• Saudi IPO Pipeline Set for H2 2026 Pickup, BSF Capital Says (Argaam) BSF Capital's Amir Riad sees a strong pipeline of listing-ready companies driving a pickup in Saudi IPO activity by H2 2026, after a slower period on Tadawul.

Funding Rounds

• Vibe coding startup Emergent hits $1.5B valuation on $130M round (Mint) Emergent hits $1.5B valuation after raising $130M in Series C funding. The vibe coding platform is at $120M ARR and plans to expand into Europe and Australia.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Scandic Hotels Group Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation Released (SA) Scandic Hotels Group published its Q2 2026 earnings presentation Wednesday, July 15, ahead of its analyst call. The slides cover revenue, occupancy, and outlook.
• Senzime (SNZZF) Q2: Costs Down 15%, EBITDA Up 27%, Philips Deal (SA) Senzime reported a 15% drop in opex and a 27% EBITDA improvement in Q2, despite flat revenue. The Sweden-based medtech firm also announced a partnership with Philips to develop…
• Raymond James Gets Buy Rating After Earnings Preview, Investor Day (SA) Raymond James upgraded to Buy after a Seeking Alpha analyst cites below-consensus Q3 and long-term targets. Alpha Score 39/100, Mixed.
• Bonesupport Q2: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Guidance Raised (SA) Bonesupport Q2 revenue rose 37% to SEK 278.5 million, with U.S. sales up 44%. The company swung to an operating profit and raised its full-year guidance to SEK 1.05-1.10 billion.

Macro

• Hyderabad School Fires Teacher Over Religious Homework to Hindu Child (Mint) A Hyderabad school fired a teacher for assigning Islamic prayers as homework to a Hindu second-grader. BJP leaders demanded state action, citing similar past incidents.
• Dixon Tech, Kaynes, Amber, Syrma jump on mobile PLI 2.0 (BL) Dixon Tech, Kaynes, Amber, Syrma rally after Cabinet clears ₹62,500 crore mobile PLI 2.0. Macquarie sees Dixon as clearest near-term beneficiary, Amber as 'sleeper beneficiary'.

Stocks

• AI Consulting Leaders Named as $2.5 Trillion Spend Forces Cost Reckoning (Prweb) Global AI spending hits $2.52 trillion as The Consulting Report names top consultants. The list spans PwC to General Dynamics, signaling broad demand for AI advisory services.
• Temple View Capital Partners With Oaktree to Back Private Lending (Prweb) Oaktree makes a strategic investment and forward capital commitment in the residential transition lender, backing its $5B origination platform.
• Crispy Cones Opens Denver Store After $200K Shark Tank Deal (S31833) The ice cream chain, which grew from a roadside tent to 18 states, bought a Denver building for $400,000. The second Colorado location tests franchise demand as Corcoran's 20%…
• Baidu Rallies on Hong Kong Dual-Primary Listing Upgrade (SA) Baidu plans to upgrade its Hong Kong listing to dual-primary status, opening the stock to mainland investors via Stock Connect. Shares rose 4.2%.
• Ukraine's Ground Robots and Interceptor Drones Reshape Battlefield (BI) Ukraine says forces kill Russian troops faster than Moscow can replace them. New robots aim to sustain that ratio, pulling soldiers from deadly front lines.
• Bluebird and Vertex Struggle as Sickle Cell Gene Therapy Adoption Lags (SA) Bluebird and Vertex struggle with sickle cell gene therapy. High costs and complex logistics limit patient access. Science works; delivery does not.
• 5 TASI Stocks Hit 52-Week Lows on July 16 (Argaam) Five Tadawul-listed stocks, including Al Sagr Insurance and Saudi Industrial Investment Group, fell to 52-week lows on July 16, Argaam data showed.
• Piramal Finance Q1 profit jumps 67%, board clears ₹4,000 crore fundraise (BL) Piramal Finance Q1 profit rose 67% to ₹461 crore on retail loan growth. Board cleared a ₹4,000 crore fundraise. Retail AUM hit 85% of the book.

Crypto

• Trust Wallet Adds AI Layer for Self-Custody Portfolio Analysis (Crypto Briefing) Trust Wallet's new AI layer offers personalised portfolio analysis and token research based on on-chain holdings, but all transactions still need user approval.
• Volvo Group Tests Proprietary Crypto for Supplier Payments (Blockonomi) Volvo Group tested a private blockchain with proprietary crypto for supplier payments. The exploration targets faster cross-border transactions and compliance with EU rules.
• Binance Adds Tencent, Xiaomi Stock Perpetuals (Crypto Briefing) Binance Futures launched perpetual contracts on Tencent and Xiaomi stock, settled in USDT with up to 10x leverage. Alpha Score 52.
• Open Interest in Crypto: A Leverage Gauge (Crypto news) Open interest measures live derivative positions, not trading activity. In crypto, it is the key leverage gauge. Learn how to read it alongside price, spot liquidation risk, and…
• Galaxy targets institutional stablecoin yield with new DeFi vaults (CoinDesk) Galaxy Digital launches institutional vault curation on lending protocol Morpho via Fireblocks, letting clients earn yield on idle stablecoin holdings without building DeFi…
• Volvo Group Tests Proprietary Token for Supplier Payments (Crypto news) The industrial group's blockchain experiment created a closed-network token for transactions with material and transport suppliers, a company executive said.
• ARK pushes back against a16z's ‘TradFi wants blockchain, not DeFi' claim (CT) ARK Invest's director of research argues institutions will increasingly rely on decentralized finance, rejecting a16z's view that TradFi wants permissioned blockchains, not DeFi.
• Ostium Vault Hit by $18M Exploit on Arbitrum (Tokenpost) An $18M exploit at an Arbitrum-based vault tied to RWA perps protocol Ostium exposes oracle and execution risks, even as institutional adoption and U.S. regulatory clarity efforts…

Forex / Commodities

• Iran told Houthis to close Red Sea oil route if US strikes (Forex Live) Tehran has asked the Houthis to prepare to block tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb if the US strikes Iran's power network, per a report.
• Oil buffers spent after Hormuz closure, IMF warns (BL) The IMF says the oil market's cushion from the Hormuz closure is spent. Inventories are near operational minimums, leaving the system vulnerable to the next shock.
• Azimut, KGHM Launch $3.4M Drilling Campaign at Kukamas Nickel Project (Manilatimes) Azimut and KGHM begin a $3.4M, 5,000m drilling campaign at the Kukamas nickel-PGE project in Quebec, targeting expansion of the high-grade Perseus Zone.
• Bunker Hill Mine Restart Nears Production After 45-Year Shutdown (Manilatimes) Bunker Hill Mining restarts Idaho's historic silver-zinc-lead mine after 45 years, appoints new CFO and GC, and earns an 'A' Digbee ESG grade. Production timeline remains open.
• SGB 2019-20 Series II Redemption at ₹14,199: Tax Change (Mint) SGB 2019-20 Series II redemption at ₹14,199 per gram yields up to 318% gain. New tax rule erases exemption for early exit after five years.
• Fed Beige Book: Economy Growing, Inflation Easing, Tariff Risks Linger (Economictimes) The Fed's Beige Book showed seven districts reporting growth and cooling labor markets. Contacts flagged fuel costs and tariff uncertainty as risks ahead of the May rate decision.
• Eurozone trade deficit jumps to €7.8B, well above forecasts (Forex Live) The Eurozone trade deficit widened to €7.8B in May, far above the €1.6B expected. Energy imports hit €30.3B, and January-May surplus plunged from €78.7B to €3.3B.
• Borregaard Q2 EBITDA Holds at NOK 515M; Alginor Impairment Hits (SA) Borregaard reported Q2 EBITDA of NOK 515M, broadly flat from a year earlier. An impairment on its Alginor investment masked operational progress, with BioMaterials hitting record…

Smart Money

• Rick Larsen (D-WA): SALE ABT
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): PURCHASE APH
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): PURCHASE MCK
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): SALE SPGI
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: KEY (KeyCorp), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 78/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 78 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: BRAI (Braiin Ltd), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 65,189 contracts, 57.4% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 173,126 contracts, 47.6% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 77,357 contracts, 38.9% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY adds 0.48% as AI spending and margin fears collide; JNJ draws Doggett buy
• Nasdaq: QQQ gains 0.37% as NVDA rallies 4%; AI capex boom meets margin anxiety
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin adds 3.7% to $62.4K, tracking gold as CLARITY Act slips past July 4 target
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Oil: Iran missile strike shoots Brent above $92; Strait of Hormuz risk returns

See you tomorrow before the bell.