AlphaScala Daily: US PPI at 8:30, NKE cluster buy stands out

Good morning.

Three inflation prints crowd the tape before lunch: US core PPI and headline PPI at 8:30, with UK CPI already out and Canada's read on deck. Brent's spike toward a one-month high on Strait of Hormuz worries has crude in the mix, while gold sits near 4,038 and bitcoin drifts to 64,674, off half a percent. On the signal side, four Nike insiders bought a net $2.17M over the past month, the loudest cluster on the board, and Kinross tops the AlphaScala model at 79. Congressman Rick Larsen also picked up McKesson and Amphenol while dumping Abbott. Let's dive in.

Markets

• XAU/USD 4,038.06 ▼ -0.36% (Gold)
• BTC/USD 64,674 ▼ -0.57% (BTC)
• ETH/USD 1,883.52 ▼ -0.44% (ETH)

Today's calendar

• Canada: CPI m/m
• United States: Core PPI m/m
• United States: PPI m/m
• United Kingdom: CPI y/y

Deal Flow

M&A

• Aduro Launches Dedicated Therapy Benefit for Self-Insured Employers (Prweb) Aduro acquires Trusana, launches mental health benefit with employed therapists, not rented networks, for self-insured employers. The care connects to physical health.
• Stripe, Advent Offer $53 Billion for PayPal in Blockbuster Deal (Bitcoin) Stripe and Advent bid $53B for PayPal, uniting two stablecoin giants. The offer is a 28% premium but far below PayPal's pandemic peak. Board decision and antitrust review ahead.

Funding Rounds

• Vibe coding startup Emergent hits $1.5B valuation on $130M round (Mint) Emergent hits $1.5B valuation after raising $130M in Series C funding. The vibe coding platform is at $120M ARR and plans to expand into Europe and Australia.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Handelsbanken Q2: Net Interest Income Falls, Costs Rise (SA) Handelsbanken Q2 net interest income fell to SEK 10.9B from SEK 11.2B. Operating costs rose to SEK 5.8B. Net profit slipped to SEK 4.8B.
• Scandic Hotels Group Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation Released (SA) Scandic Hotels Group published its Q2 2026 earnings presentation Wednesday, July 15, ahead of its analyst call. The slides cover revenue, occupancy, and outlook.

Macro

• RIR Power Electronics, valued at ₹1,257 crore, lists on NSE (BL) RIR Power Electronics, a Halol-based semiconductor maker, begins NSE trading Thursday. The dual listing aims to boost liquidity and attract institutional and retail investors.…
• Tlaib Grills Fed's Warsh on Private Meetings, Transparency (Economictimes) Rep. Tlaib pressed Fed Chair Warsh over private meetings with financial institutions, questioning whether closed-door briefings create an information gap for the public.
• Treasury Yields Tick Higher Ahead of June PPI Print (CNBC) Ten-year yields rose above 4.60% as traders awaited June PPI data a day after a softer CPI print boosted hopes for a 2025 rate cut.

Stocks

• Goldman's Ruemmler faces House questions on Epstein ties (CNBC) Goldman Sachs' former top lawyer Kathryn Ruemmler faces House Oversight questions Wednesday over her relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
• AI Consulting Leaders Named as $2.5 Trillion Spend Forces Cost Reckoning (Prweb) Global AI spending hits $2.52 trillion as The Consulting Report names top consultants. The list spans PwC to General Dynamics, signaling broad demand for AI advisory services.
• Temple View Capital Partners With Oaktree to Back Private Lending (Prweb) Oaktree makes a strategic investment and forward capital commitment in the residential transition lender, backing its $5B origination platform.
• Wheel Rolls Out Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Support as CMS Shifts to Value-Based Care (Prweb) Wheel launched support for Medicare's GLP-1 Bridge and ACCESS Model on July 15, processing 300K branded GLP-1 encounters in H1 2026. The private company's AI platform handles…
• Jim Cramer Sticks With IBM Despite Starbucks Threat and AI Pressure (Insidermonkey) Jim Cramer backs IBM for software and quantum computing, even as a possible Starbucks defection looms. The Alpha Score of 41 signals the balancing act ahead for the stock.
• Sensex, Nifty Rise on Bank Rally; Geopolitics Caps Gains (Hindu) Indian equities erased Tuesday's losses as bank stocks rallied on softer U.S. inflation data, though escalating U.S.-Iran tensions pulled the Sensex from intraday highs.
• CSR Conclave to Debate Outcome-Linked Spending Rules (BL) India's annual CSR spend has crossed ₹30,000 crore. A two-day conclave near Bengaluru starting July 16 will debate whether that money is delivering measurable results.
• Crispy Cones Opens Denver Store After $200K Shark Tank Deal (S31833) The ice cream chain, which grew from a roadside tent to 18 states, bought a Denver building for $400,000. The second Colorado location tests franchise demand as Corcoran's 20%…

Crypto

• Chai Discovery's $400M Raise: AI Biotech Beats Blockchain for Pharma (Crypto Briefing) Chai Discovery, backed by Pfizer and Eli Lilly, is raising $400M at $3.4B. Its AI achieves 20% hit rates on antibody design, 200x better than prior methods. The read-through for…
• ECB Picks 36 Firms for Digital Euro Pilot, Including Deutsche Bank and Revolut (CoinDesk) The ECB picked 36 banks and payment firms, including Deutsche Bank and Revolut, to test a digital euro starting in late 2025. The project targets a 2029 launch and aims to counter…
• BlackRock's Digital Assets Fall 39% Despite $15.1B Inflows (CoinDesk) BlackRock's crypto AUM fell to $48.8B as market losses outweighed $15.1B inflows. The firm targets $500M digital asset revenue by 2030.
• South Korea Plans State Crypto Asset Law After MiCA (Crypto Economy) South Korea plans a National Asset Basic Act to bring crypto under state-asset reporting rules, mirroring MiCA's transparency framework for government-held digital assets.
• Japan Reclassifies Crypto as Financial Asset, Cuts Tax to 20% (CoinDesk) Japan's parliament approved a law shifting crypto from payment tool to financial instrument, cutting the top tax rate from 55% to 20% and clearing a path for spot bitcoin ETFs.
• U.S.-U.K. Stablecoin Roadmap Advances as CLARITY Act Stalls (AMBCrypto) The U.S. and U.K. pledged to avoid heavy stablecoin reserve rules. The CLARITY Act's odds dropped to 32% as political infighting grows.
• Japan Law Recognizes Crypto as Financial Products (Cryip) Japan's upper house passed crypto reforms on July 15, classifying digital assets as financial products under the FIEA. Exchanges face stricter rules and FSA oversight within 18…
• Japan Passes Crypto Bill: Insider Trading Ban, Tax Cut to 20% (Coingape) Japan's new law classifies crypto as investment products under FIEA, raises penalties to 10 years, and sets a 20% flat tax on crypto gains from 2028.

Forex / Commodities

• Brent Oil Hits One-Month High as Strait of Hormuz Closure Stirs Supply Fears (Action Forex) Brent crude rose to a one-month high after the Strait of Hormuz closure, breaking above $80 and the 200-day moving average. The golden cross signals continued gains.
• Oil steady near $80, long-end yields push higher after CPI (Forex Live) European session: long-end yields push back up after US CPI, oil holds near $80 at $79.85. Euro flat at 1.1418, dollar recovers losses. US PPI report due Thursday.
• Instamart, HPCL launch on-demand LPG cylinder delivery in Bengaluru (Mint) Instamart has started delivering HPCL LPG cylinders on demand in Bengaluru. No prior gas connection needed. The pilot covers one area but opens a new distribution channel for…
• Archrock Sets August 5 Call for Q2 Report as Gas Compression Demand Holds (Manilatimes) Archrock will report Q2 earnings before the Aug. 5 open, followed by an 8:30 a.m. ET call. The Houston compressor-services firm benefits from steady U.S. gas production near 103…
• Bunker Hill Drilling Doubles Cate-8 Discovery Target (Manilatimes) Bunker Hill drilling hits up to 27.1 oz/ton silver, 35.7% lead, 15.7% zinc, doubling Cate-8 target to 2.08M oz AgEq. Resource estimate due by end-2026.
• Goliath Expands Bonanza and Golden Gate Zones at Surebet Gold Discovery (Manilatimes) Goliath Resources expands Bonanza and Golden Gate zones at Surebet gold discovery in B.C.'s Golden Triangle, with visible gold in 6 of 10 new holes and a fully funded 50,000-meter…
• Cerrado Gold Cuts Costs, Lifts EBITDA; BFS Delay in Focus (SA) Cerrado Gold reported lower AISC and higher EBITDA for H1, holding full-year guidance. The BFS delay and cash flow quality are the next catalysts.
• Wheaton Precious Metals Gets Target Cuts as Gold Retreats from Highs (Insidermonkey) Jefferies and UBS cut Wheaton Precious Metals targets to $177 and $150, citing gold's retreat and diesel cost pressure. Alpha Score 68. Q2 earnings due in August.

Smart Money

• Rick Larsen (D-WA): SALE ABT
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): PURCHASE APH
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): PURCHASE MCK
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): SALE SPGI
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: PNC (PNC Financial Services Group Inc.), Alpha Score 78/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 78 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: BRAI (Braiin Ltd), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 65,189 contracts, 57.4% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 173,126 contracts, 47.6% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 77,357 contracts, 38.9% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY adds 0.48% as AI spending and margin fears collide; JNJ draws Doggett buy
• Nasdaq: QQQ gains 0.37% as NVDA rallies 4%; AI capex boom meets margin anxiety
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin adds 3.7% to $62.4K, tracking gold as CLARITY Act slips past July 4 target
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Oil: Iran missile strike shoots Brent above $92; Strait of Hormuz risk returns

See you tomorrow before the bell.