AlphaScala Daily: Hormuz shut sends oil up, gold down

Good morning.

Oil ripped 4% higher after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and the risk-off read hit everything else: gold slipped to 4,061 (-1.23%), Bitcoin sits at 62,751 (-1.55%), and USD/JPY ticked up to 162.18. On the tape, TSM logged a 10-insider cluster buy over the past month while NKE saw four insiders put down a net $2.17M. Financials own the top of the model this morning, with TROW at 83, KEY at 80, and PNC close behind. Rep. Gilbert Cisneros also disclosed purchases in AGX and BOOT. Here's what matters.

Markets

• USD/JPY 162.18 ▲ +0.29% (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
• XAU/USD 4,061 ▼ -1.23% (Gold)
• BTC/USD 62,750.84 ▼ -1.55% (BTC)
• ETH/USD 1,780.2 ▼ -1.44% (ETH)

Deal Flow

M&A

• J.P. Morgan: SpaceX-Tesla Merger 'Coherent on Paper' (Yahoo) J.P. Morgan calls a potential SpaceX-Tesla combination 'strategically coherent on paper' but flags regulatory and control obstacles. EchoStar and Charter are cited as SpaceX…
• Korean Air Swings to Net Loss as Cargo Revenue Slumps (Rttnews) Korean Air posted a Q2 net loss as cargo revenue slid 17% and the won weighed. Operating profit missed estimates. The Asiana merger awaits global clearance.

IPOs / Listings

• SpaceX IPO and Iran War Lift Q2 Earnings for Big Banks (CNBC) Q2 earnings kick off Tuesday with JPMorgan, Bank of America, and others. Trading revenue could jump 14%, investment banking 26%. The sustainability question lingers.
• Laser Power & Infra IPO Draws 38x Subscription, Led by QIBs (BL) Laser Power and Infra's ₹742-crore IPO saw 38.5x overall subscription, with QIBs bidding 92x and NIIs 43x. Anchor book included major mutual funds.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Goldman, JPM Earnings Loom Over Mixed European Session (Rttnews) JPMorgan shares edged up 0.30% to $336.47 ahead of Tuesday's Q1 results. Goldman Sachs reports alongside, with Alpha Score 56. Earnings will test bank sector momentum.

Macro

• Iran Strikes Gulf States, Says Strait of Hormuz Closed After US Assaults (Economictimes) Iran struck Qatar, UAE, and Oman after U.S. assaults, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed. The blockade drives oil prices higher ahead of U.S. elections.
• Small Retailer Paid Thousands in Tariffs, Sees No Refunds (BI) Marc Bowker's Alter Ego Comics paid thousands in tariff fees on imported collectibles. He does not expect refunds, highlighting how small retailers absorb trade levies.

Stocks

• 3 TASI stocks, Alistithmar REIT hit 52-week lows (Argaam) Saudi Industrial Investment, Alistithmar REIT, Amiantit and Al-Baha Investment all touched their weakest levels in a year on July 13.
• Aldawaa, MBC Group hit record lows since listing (Argaam) Aldawaa and MBC Group shares hit their lowest levels since listing on July 13, with both stocks under pressure since their 2022 market debuts.
• Quadient UK open locker network surpasses 3,000 locations (Retailtimes) Quadient's UK open locker network hits 3,000 locations, strengthening its parcel delivery infrastructure. The Paris-based automation platform continues to expand its Parcel…
• MIS Hits Highest Price Since Listing on TASI (Argaam) Al Moammar Information Systems Co. touched its highest level since its TASI debut on July 13, with elevated volumes and an 18% gain since listing.
• ITR 2026: Do You Need Physical Copies of Digital Tax Documents? (Mint) Tax experts say digital records are enough for ITR filing, but key documents like Form 16 and bank statements must be accessible for verification.
• Meghalaya Pineapple Sales Double to 30 Tonnes at Delhi Festival (BL) Sales of Meghalaya pineapples surged to 30 tonnes at the Delhi festival, nearly double last year, as value-chain investments lift farmer incomes and open export channels.
• Nifty IT Surge 3.6% Offsets Global Sell-Off, Nifty Flat at 24,211 (BL) Nifty IT surged 3.6% as LTIMindtree beat estimates, offsetting a global sell-off. Nifty closed flat at 24,211 after recovering 250 points. Rupee hit 95.62.
• Congressional Bill Would Raise Minimum Wage by More Than Triple (Realclearmarkets) The bill moving through Congress would raise the federal minimum wage to over $21 an hour, impacting costs for low-wage employers.

Crypto

• BlackRock, Goldman, JPMorgan join UK tokenization taskforce (CoinDesk) HM Treasury's tokenization taskforce includes BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and 50+ firms. Live use cases start with tokenized repo. BCG sees $88 trillion RWA market by 2035.
• CZ Sends $1.6M in Meme Coins to a 'Black Hole' Address (UToday) Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao said the $1.6 million in meme coin transfers to a burn address were a routine cleanup of spam tokens, repeating a pattern seen with Vitalik Buterin.
• KOSPI crash triggers circuit breaker, crypto faces risk-on unwind (Cryptopolitan) South Korea's KOSPI crashed 8.95%, triggering a circuit breaker as leveraged retail positions unwound. Bitcoin rejected $64K, with contagion fears ahead of the U.S. open.
• Webull Wins MiCAR Approval for European Crypto Launch (Crypto news) Webull EU won MiCAR approval from the Dutch AFM, becoming one of the first dual-regulated investment firms in the Netherlands to offer regulated crypto custody and trading…
• Binance Futures Volume Hits $1.6 Trillion, Highest This Year (UToday) Binance's monthly futures volume reached $1.6 trillion in June, the highest in 2024, as CryptoQuant data showed continued derivatives activity despite a cautious market.
• Robinhood Founder's Seed Phrase Leak Pumps Memecoin to $14M (Cryptopolitan) A leaked seed phrase from a Robinhood founder's wallet let a hacker pump a memecoin from $500K to $14M in two hours. The attacker then moved funds to BNB Chain, exposing how…
• Thailand Tightens Stablecoin Oversight, Targets USDT Transactions (Coinpaper) Bank of Thailand and SEC will monitor high-volume USDT and cash transactions after scam losses hit $3.4B. Crypto trading remains legal.
• Profit-taking, MidEast hostilities drag crypto lower after bullish week (CoinDesk) Bitcoin slips 1% to $63,100 as altcoins like LIT fall 8%. Equity markets drop on Iran-US airstrikes. Profit-taking adds to selling pressure after a bullish week.

Forex / Commodities

• Oil Surges 4% on Strait of Hormuz Closure; Equities, Gold Fall (Forex Live) WTI crude climbed to $74.33, Brent to $79.10 after US-Iran strikes resumed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, Nasdaq futures lost 1.4% as risk appetite faded.
• EUR/INR: Oil Risk Tilts the Pair Higher, but Rupee Support Caps the Run (InvestingCube) The rupee takes the direct hit from higher crude, while the euro is only indirectly affected. That asymmetry gives EUR/INR a mild upside bias, but domestic support caps the move.
• Oil Holds Gains as Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed (Forex Live) WTI crude rose 3.5% to $73.90 as the dollar eased and European stocks calmed. Focus turns to US CPI later this week, with 10-year yields near June highs.
• Oil pangs resurface for rupee, options market gauge signals bearish bias (The Economic Times) The rupee options market tilts bearish as oil prices climb. Risk-reversal skews widen, traders say, signaling more hedging against rupee weakness. RBI steps in; bias persists.
• India Inflation at 4.38% Breaches RBI's 4% Target (Forex Live) India's June CPI hit 4.38%, exceeding the RBI's 4% target for the first time since February 2024. Higher food and fuel costs from a delayed monsoon drove the acceleration.
• Nova Minerals Completes Antimony Pilot Plant Design, Enters Execution Phase (Manilatimes) Figure 1. 3D rendering of the proposed Port Mackenzie antimony pilot plant Get the latest news

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• Enerflex Director Assing Resigns to Focus on Camin Role (Financialpost) Enerflex director Fernando Assing will resign July 17 to focus on CEO duties at Camin Cargo. The energy-services provider has started a board search.
• Oil Jumps Over 4% After Strait of Hormuz Threats (Argaam) Brent crude settled near $82 a barrel after the biggest single-day jump in three months. Traders cited renewed threats in the Strait of Hormuz.

Smart Money

• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE AGX
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE BOOT
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE CDRE
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): SALE CBZ
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 83/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 83 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KEY (KeyCorp), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: PNC (PNC Financial Services Group Inc.), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: BRAI (Braiin Ltd), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 65,189 contracts, 57.4% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 173,126 contracts, 47.6% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 77,357 contracts, 38.9% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY adds 0.48% as AI spending and margin fears collide; JNJ draws Doggett buy
• Nasdaq: QQQ gains 0.37% as NVDA rallies 4%; AI capex boom meets margin anxiety
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin adds 3.7% to $62.4K, tracking gold as CLARITY Act slips past July 4 target
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Oil: Iran missile strike shoots Brent above $92; Strait of Hormuz risk returns

See you tomorrow before the bell.