AlphaScala Daily: CPI at 8:30, NKE insiders buy $2.17M

Good morning.

CPI hits at 8:30 a.m. ET, and everything before then is just positioning. Bitcoin slipped 1.7% to $62,260 overnight, with ether and gold both softer ahead of the print. On the tape, four Nike insiders bought $2.17M over the past 30 days, Micron tops the model at 81, and Alphabet sits right behind at 79. Rep. Gilbert Cisneros disclosed purchases in AGX, BOOT, and CDRE. Here's what matters.

Markets

• USD/JPY 162.49 ▲ +0.23% (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
• XAU/USD 4,072.44 ▼ -0.82% (Gold)
• BTC/USD 62,260.49 ▼ -1.68% (BTC)
• ETH/USD 1,748.15 ▼ -1.32% (ETH)

Today's calendar

• United States: Core CPI m/m
• United States: CPI y/y
• United States: CPI m/m

Deal Flow

M&A

• Upbit Operator Dunamu Wins Police Crypto Custody Contract (Crypto news) Dunamu, operator of Upbit, won the preferred bid for a $195,000 police custody contract. Smaller rivals say tender requirements favored the exchange giant.

IPOs / Listings

• Apotex IPO Shares Jump 44%; Analysts See 24% More Upside (Thepost) The Canadian generic drugmaker has 25% domestic market share and unanimous buy ratings. Average price target of $40.25 implies further gains.
• Circle Defies Crypto IPO Bloodbath as Gemini, BitGo Lose 70%+ (Tokenpost) Circle trades 110% above its IPO offer price. Gemini, BitGo, and Bullish are down 70-89%. The divergence shows which companies priced realistically.
• SEC Targets Crypto Rules, IPO Revival, Private Market Access (Cointribune) Chairman Paul Atkins wants clearer crypto custody rules, tokenized securities standards, and easier capital raising for private companies. The SEC aims to set rules before…
• Akasa Air CEO Sets 2026-2028 IPO Window, 226-Plane Fleet Target (Economictimes) Akasa Air CEO Vinay Dube targets a 226-plane fleet by 2032 and an IPO in 2026-2028. The carrier's break-even by March 2025 is the next milestone for institutional investors.
• SambaNova's $11B valuation shows money still chasing Nvidia rivals (CNBC) SambaNova hits $11B valuation on $1B round led by General Atlantic, with JPMorgan deploying its inference chips on-premise. CEO weighs 2027 U.S. IPO.

Debt

• Fitch Revises Cenomi Centres Outlook to Stable, Leverage Risk Recedes (Argaam) Fitch Ratings lifted Cenomi Centres' outlook to Stable from Negative, citing lower leverage and improved liquidity. The move removes near-term refinancing risks for the company's…

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Meta AI Capex: Zuckerberg's Mea Culpa and Strategic Vision (Stratechery) In a hypothetical earnings call script, Ben Thompson imagines Zuckerberg admitting past platform mistakes and committing to AI capex, arguing AI will expand ad inventory and fund…

Macro

• Hical Technologies Breaks Ground on 160,000 sq ft Hosur Facility (BL) The new aerospace-qualified plant adds precision machining and fabrication capacity for global OEM programmes, strengthening India's supply chain role.
• India's First Export Container Takes on China's 90% Market Grip (Economictimes) India deploys its first export-import shipping container, challenging China's 90%+ market share. Maersk backs the effort with a purchase agreement and technical support.
• Shrinking Populations Boost Productivity, Nobel Winner's Study Finds (BL) A new study by Nobel winner Daron Acemoglu and colleagues finds that declining birth rates raise GDP per worker by 26.8% per percentage-point drop, fully offsetting population…
• EPF 8.25% interest credit by July 15: Check balance via UMANG, SMS (Economictimes) EPFO credits 8.25% interest by July 15 for FY2025-26 – third straight year. No subscriber losses from delay. Check via UMANG app or SMS: type EPFOHO UAN to 7738299899.
• Academy of Learning inks SAR 405.14M training agreement with Hadaf (Argaam) Academy of Learning Co. signed a SAR 405 million training contract with Hadaf, boosting its project backlog. The deal ties training directly to job placement, AOL said.

Stocks

• MCP Vulnerability Lets Attackers Hijack Bank AI Agents (Pymnts) Microsoft warns that hidden instructions in MCP tool descriptions let attackers hijack AI agents in banking. Moody's cut credit memo time from 40 hours to two minutes, but…
• Tadawul Sees 3 Negotiated Deals Worth SAR 31M on Sunday (Argaam) Tadawul reported SAR 31 million in negotiated deals Sunday, led by an SAR 18.6 million block on Electrical Industries. The three trades signal institutional repositioning in…
• OpenAI Gets Green Light for GPT-5.6 After Government Review (Financefeeds) OpenAI Cleared to Broadly Release GPT-5.6 After U.S. Government Review

OpenAI has received U.S. government approval to broadly release its new GPT-5.6 model fa...

• T. Rowe Price ETFs Hit 3-Year Mark, Opening Doors to Allocators (Etftrends) T. Rowe Price's four active ETFs hit the three-year mark, unlocking access to platforms and model portfolios. TMSL leads with a 31.8% return.
• Elastic's Cloud Shift Turns Logging Nightmare Into Revenue (Medium) Elastic Cloud revenue grew 35% last quarter as teams hit the pain point of self-managed logging. The conversion cycle from open-source to paid is the stock's key metric.
• JNJ Stock: Rally Priced In, Analyst Sees Limited Upside (SA) Johnson & Johnson's Alpha Score of 65/100 flags a stock that has rallied. The valuation leaves little room for error. The next catalyst is Q2 earnings in July, with support near…
• ORANY €14 Risk: Timeline and Triggers for a 2026–2027 Entry (SA) Orange may drop to €14 by 2027. The risk is tied to debt costs, competition, and dividend sustainability. Key triggers: earnings misses, dividend cuts, or higher rates. Track FCF…
• Biomel Protein Drinks Take Gut Health Into $4B Category (Retailtimes) Biomel expands Love Your Gut with protein drinks, blending probiotics with post-workout nutrition in a $4 billion U.S. category dominated by macros-focused brands.

Crypto

• ESMA Opens Custody Review Under New MiCA Rules (Blockonomi) ESMA opens a custody-focused review of crypto firms after the July 1 MiCA transition deadline. National authorities will check how firms protect client assets.
• Toss Tests KRW Stablecoin on Optimism in Three-Month PoC (Crypto Briefing) Toss, the South Korean fintech super-app with 15M+ users, is testing a KRW stablecoin on Optimism's OP Stack in a three-month proof of concept.
• RBI Renews Crypto Ban Push as Tax Evasion Persists (Blockonomi) India's tax authorities found that less than 25% of 645,000 crypto holders disclosed transactions in FY2023, as the RBI pushes to keep banks away from digital assets.
• OKX Wins MiFID Approval to Offer Regulated Crypto, Equity Derivatives in EU (Tokenpost) OKX secured a MiFID license to offer regulated crypto, commodity, and equity derivatives across all 27 EU states. The approval puts the exchange in a small group with a single…
• SEC Plans Crypto Rules on Token Issuance and Custody (Tokenpost) SEC may propose crypto rules this month covering token issuance and custody. SpaceX Nasdaq-100 inclusion could drive $4.3B passive BTC exposure through index trackers.
• Elliptic, CoinGecko Tackle RWA Pricing for Tokenized Assets (Crypto Briefing) Elliptic and CoinGecko partner to address pricing for the $13.5B tokenized real-world asset sector, aiming to tighten spreads and provide defensible marks for institutional…
• American CryptoFed Tries SEC Registration Route for Locke Token (Tokenpost) The Wyoming DAO filed a Form 10 in June to register its Locke token. The SEC has until around August 17 to object or let the registration become effective automatically.
• ESMA Review Targets Crypto Custody Under New EU Rules (Crypto Briefing) ESMA is reviewing crypto custody providers under MiCA rules. The regulator wants custody firms to meet the same standards as traditional finance, focusing on licensing and asset…

Forex / Commodities

• Oil surges 6% after Trump scraps Iran deal, risk-off sweeps markets (Forex Live) WTI crude jumps 6% to $74.70 after Trump declares the Iran ceasefire deal dead. European equities fall 2%, S&P 500 futures drop 1%, and 10-year yields test 4.58%.
• Rupee sinks to one-month low on crude spike after Trump scraps Iran deal (The Economic Times) Crude jumped after Trump said the Iran deal is finished, pushing the rupee past 83.50. Higher oil costs widen India's trade deficit directly, and the RBI's intervention may only…
• Oil Jumps 6% After U.S. Strikes on Iran, Strait of Hormuz in Focus (SA) U.S. forces hit Iranian air defense and naval targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Crude jumps 6% to $75 as the risk premium returns. The Islamabad MoU framework is in jeopardy.
• US futures tumble as Trump says Iran deal is 'over'; oil climbs (Economictimes) Oil jumped 6% after U.S. strikes on Iran, and Trump's comments on the nuclear deal sent futures lower. The sector read-through for Indian markets: higher crude costs hit refiners…
• Petro Rabigh Rises 2.5% After OGM Vote, RSI at 59 (English) Petro Rabigh shares rose 2.5% to 14.05 SAR after the company disclosed OGM results. RSI at 59.49, ADX at 21.31. Accumulated losses stand at 2.46 billion SAR.
• Middle East jitters boost crude, tilt dollar as Fed minutes loom (Invezz) Crude premiums widen as Middle East tensions boost dollar; Fed minutes at 1800 GMT are the next catalyst for rate repricing and USD direction.
• Trump abandons Iran deal, oil surges 6%, risk-off hits markets (Forex Live) Oil surged 6% after Trump scrapped the Iran deal. Yields rose, stocks fell, and gold slid. Trump also threatened to cut trade ties with Spain, deepening the risk-off.
• Middle East Strikes Lift Brent, Push Dollar and Rate Bets Higher (Action Forex) US strikes on Iran and suspension of oil licenses sent Brent up 6%. The dollar rallied as safe-haven demand rose and the market priced in a higher chance of two Fed rate hikes in…

Smart Money

• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE AGX
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE BOOT
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE CDRE
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): SALE CBZ
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: MU (Micron Technology Inc.), Alpha Score 81/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: GOOGL (Alphabet Inc. Class A), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: BRAI (Braiin Ltd), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 54,844 contracts, 53.1% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 146,792 contracts, 42.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): hedge funds net short 41,094 contracts, 37.8% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Nasdaq: Nasdaq slips 1.6% as AAPL rallies 4.8%, AI chip bets diverge
• Sp500: SPY +0.5% as Nasdaq drops 1.6%; rotation lifts financials, health care
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin adds 3.7% to $62.4K, tracking gold as CLARITY Act slips past July 4 target
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Forex: Euro and sterling sink as dollar rally broadens; EUR long squeeze, GBP record short test support

See you tomorrow before the bell.