AlphaScala Daily: NFP and jobless rate hit at 8:30

Good morning.

The US jobs report drops at 8:30 ET, and it sets the tone for everything after the open: Non-Farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings all land together, with Canada's labor numbers on the same clock. Crypto is the soft spot heading in, with ETH down 6% and BTC back below $62.2K. Gold sits near $4,463 after a 0.3% slip as the dollar holds firm against most majors.

Where things stand

ETH/USD is the standout move, off 6.01% to $1,665.31, with BTC/USD down 2.63% to $62,130.71 as the regulatory week keeps a lid on majors. Gold eased 0.30% to $4,462.64. In FX the dollar is on the back foot: EUR/USD up 0.22% to 1.1636 and GBP/USD up 0.29% to 1.3463, while USD/JPY barely moved at 159.90.

What you need to know

• The 8:30 jobs data is the only thing that matters pre-open. NFP, unemployment, and hourly earnings print at once; a hot wage number feeds the rate-hike pricing that's been testing the bond market.
• Crypto weakness is broad, not idiosyncratic. ETH leading BTC lower fits the crypto briefing read of majors drifting on regulatory gridlock.
• Gold's pullback tracks a firmer dollar, per the gold briefing; no proprietary signal fired on the metal this week.
• FX positioning stays stretched: hedge funds are net short 34,179 NZD contracts (37.4% of OI) and 35,140 CHF (33.3%), keeping squeeze risk live. Full briefing

Today's calendar

• 08:30 ET, US: Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m (all High)
• 08:30 ET, Canada: Unemployment Rate and Employment Change (High)

On the radar

• TSM: cluster buy, 10 distinct insiders bought in 30 days, buy/sell ratio 11/0, net $45K over 90d. Breadth, not size, is the signal here.
• NKE: 4 insiders bought, net $2.17M (90d), ratio 4/1. The biggest dollar figure among the clusters.
• KGC: Alpha Score 79/100, strong momentum, value, and quality. A gold name scoring well while spot metal slips 0.30%.
• MU: Alpha Score 79/100 on strong momentum and quality, moderate value.
• TTD: insiders net +$143.45M over 90d, the heaviest single-buyer figure on the board.
• GOOGL: Rep. David Taylor (R-OH) disclosed a 5/15 sale of Alphabet alongside AAPL and K, rotating into T and HD.

See you tomorrow before the bell.