
Seventeen years ago, we wrote the first Sovereign Man letter arguing America was structurally broke. The consensus called us cranks. Today the numbers are worse, and our playbook has only grown.
Twenty years ago, if you recognized how deep America's problems were, it was easy to feel like you were the crazy one.
Banks were handing out mortgages to people who plainly couldn't afford them. Wall Street bundled those mortgages by the millions and sold them on as some of the safest investments around. The whole structure rested on the assumption that home prices would never fall, so a bank could simply sell the home for more in case of a default.
Chief among the "experts" selling this fiction was Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. In 2005, he said, "We've never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis."
In March 2007, with subprime loans already going bad, Bernanke – by then Fed Chairman – told Congress the damage "seems likely to be contained."
That May he said he didn't expect "significant spillovers… to the rest of the economy."
As late as July 2008, weeks before the two mortgage giants collapsed into government hands, he called Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac adequately capitalized and in no danger of failing.
Then on September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed the largest bankruptcy in US history. Prices fell. Homes were suddenly worth less than the loans against them. The safest investments around turned toxic.
By 2009, Washington was spending, bailing out, and printing at record scale. The obvious question was how long it could possibly go on.
That was the world the very first Sovereign Man letter dropped into, in June 2009 – exactly 17 years ago.
We wrote about a real man named William "Bud" Post who had gone flat broke, on food stamps, with lawsuits, jail time, and bankruptcy behind him. The strange part was that in 1988 he had won $16.2 million in the Pennsylvania lottery.
Bud, we wrote, is the United States of America.
America hit its own lottery after World War II, coming out the only major economy left standing, the dollar enthroned as the world's reserve currency. Like Bud, it spent the next several decades certain the money would never run out.
LBJ got bogged down in Vietnam while building the Great Society. George W. Bush entered two wars and told Americans to go shopping. Obama, fresh off the bailouts, promised universal healthcare.
It was the steady avoidance of every hard choice. We called it winner's syndrome: "we've been winners for so long we don't know any other reality."
In 2009, that was an unpopular thing to say.
The consensus treated the crisis as a stumble the economy would walk off. Calling America structurally broke got you labeled a crank.
We didn't call it a death sentence. We argued the opposite – that clear thinking could still save America: take the hit, let failing businesses fail, restructure, and come out stronger.
"Unfortunately," we wrote, "there are no near-term indications of rationality in Washington."
17 years later, that is more true than ever. If anything, Washington has gone backwards.
Social Security's own trustees now project the main retirement trust fund runs dry in 2032, after which scheduled benefits get cut by roughly 22% automatically.
That is not some distant future where maybe someone will have to start thinking about a solution. It is 6 years away.
The fixes are no secret. The trustees themselves lay out the options, from higher payroll taxes to benefit cuts.
They have ignored it for so long that simply hearing a few members of Congress acknowledge the scale of the problem now feels like progress. Acknowledging it is a long way from fixing it.
We were early. The reckoning we kept warning about has taken longer to arrive than we thought.
Early isn’t wrong. Everything that first letter described is more true today than it was in 2009. Washington could still choose to fix it, exactly as it could have back then. It simply has to want to. Seventeen years of evidence says it does not.
Your Plan B, fortunately, does not require Congress to find its courage.
That was the entire reason this company was founded.
That was the promise at the end of that first letter: while the country may be on a slide, clear thinking could still save you, "and that's where we come in."
Sovereign Man grew into Schiff Sovereign. One daily letter became a full body of research.
Every month, our co-founder James Hickman gives his in-depth view of the world in the Macro Brief, mapping where the debt, the dollar, and global events are heading. He points to specific real assets that can protect your savings – the gold, energy, and resource businesses that hold their value as the dollar slips.
It's available to members of Premium for just $9 per month.
Members of our flagship membership, Plan B Confidential, get even more.
This is the original idea the first letter was built on: do not put all your eggs in one basket. Do not hand one government the keys to your entire life. Plan B Confidential is the playbook for second citizenship so you always have another way out, foreign residency so you always have another place to live, offshore banking so your savings are not trapped in one banking system, and the legal tax strategy that lets you keep as much of your money as possible.
It is built on boots-on-the-ground research across more than 120 countries.
Because so much of the threat from a bankrupt government printing money and draining the value of your savings is financial, we have zeroed in on real assets through our investment research newsletter, Strategic Assets.
A real asset is something with worth of its own, the kind of thing people need no matter what the dollar is doing: gold as a store of value, energy, the metals that build everything. A government can print money by the trillion. It cannot print an ounce of gold or a barrel of oil. Real assets tend to hold their value, and often climb, exactly when paper money is falling apart.
For readers who want it all, we offer Total Access.
Members get everything we publish: the macro analysis, the investment research, and all the international strategies in between.
Total Access members also get the community. Other members they meet at in-person events, conferences, dinners, and most recently, small group boots-on-the-ground trips around the world.
From a superyacht along the Croatian coast to a trek through the Patagonian Andes, members explore the world together. They finally find their tribe in each other.
That is the part we could never have planned 17 years ago.
Back then, we wrote to a handful of people willing to question what everyone else accepted as obvious. You were one of them. Or you found your way here since, because you see the world through that same lens.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.