XRP's ATH Break Hinges on Stalled Lending Protocol Vote

XRP came within 5% of its $3.84 all-time high in July 2025, touching $3.65 before sliding 73% to around $1.05. The token now needs its market cap to nearly quadruple from $65 billion to $242 billion at the current 63 billion coin supply, which has doubled from 34 billion at the 2018 peak.

The July run was the closest XRP has come to a new high since January 2018. The catalyst was the winding down of the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple, a case that began in December 2020 and pushed XRP off U.S. exchanges. Judge Analisa Torres ruled in July 2023 that XRP sold on public exchanges was not a security, and U.S. platforms relisted the token. The price rallied above $2 again after the 2024 election and Gary Gensler's resignation, then reached $3.40 in January 2025 and $3.65 in July as the case approached its close.

That high did not hold. Monthly escrow releases from Ripple add up to a billion XRP to the market on the first of each month, with most re-locked but a few hundred million coins entering circulation. The supply has kept growing and will continue for another nine years. XRP ETFs, which hold about 978 million XRP, have absorbed less than 2% of the supply after nine months of trading, according to fund data.

Ripple's lending protocol was designed to change the supply dynamic. Built on standards XLS-65 and XLS-66, the protocol would let holders deposit XRP into vaults that fund fixed-term loans and pay a set return, with borrowers assessed off-chain. It would be the first way for XRP to earn yield and would lock coins for the length of each loan. The amendment opened for validator voting after the v3.1.0 release in January, but support still sits near 20%, far below the 80% needed for two consecutive weeks to activate. Halborn's re-audit in June found no critical or high-severity flaws, and RippleX is offering up to $200,000 for any discovery. Validators have not moved.

The CLARITY Act, which would make XRP's commodity classification permanent, has stalled in Congress. Institutions have said they need that legal certainty before committing large sums, according to the report. Without it, ETF inflows may stay well below the $4 billion per year needed to move the price meaningfully.