WTI Holds Above 50 EMA as $90 Resistance Caps Rally

The 14-day relative strength index for WTI sits near 58, below the overbought threshold of 70, leaving room for further upside if a catalyst emerges. A close above $90 would target the April high near $94, while a break below the 50 EMA could open a test of the $85 level.

Treasury yields rose Thursday, with the 10-year note climbing above 4.25%, which typically pressures commodities by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The dollar index edged higher as well, adding another headwind for oil priced in the greenback.

Still, crude has largely shrugged off those macro headwinds this quarter. The premium for immediate delivery versus later months remains elevated, with the WTI front-month spread trading in backwardation around 80 cents – a sign that spot supply is tight relative to expectations.

Iran and the U.S. have not released new statements on nuclear negotiations or maritime security this week, leaving the market to price the status quo. Any escalation or de-escalation could shift prices sharply given the narrow trading range.

The weekly U.S. inventory data due next Wednesday will offer the next scheduled check on physical supply-demand balances. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect a draw of roughly 2 million barrels, which would mark a second consecutive weekly decline and reinforce the tightness narrative.