WTI Holds $83 Support Ahead of OPEC+; Natural Gas Breaks Below 2.827

Brent crude followed a similar path. The global benchmark broke below its 50-EMA at $90.87 and the 100-EMA at $86.91, trading at $86.59. The RSI was 34. Brent's support levels are $83.52 and $79.52. Resistance is at $88.12, $90.87 and $92.72. The short-term outlook stays bearish while price holds below $88.12, traders said.

Natural gas is under separate pressure. The contract fell below the long-term support level of $2.827, a level that had held for weeks. At the time of the decline, the 50-EMA was $2.909 and the 100-EMA was $2.969. The RSI dropped to 33. The descending trendline from earlier highs remains intact. Support levels are $2.781 and $2.728, with $2.662 as the next target. Resistance is at $2.827 and $2.950, and then $3.028. A move back above $2.827 would be needed for buyers to regain control.

The decline builds on the weak positioning highlighted in AlphaScala's earlier analysis of the natural gas market. Fundamentals, however, remain strong on the supply side. The EIA's outlook calls for U.S. LNG exports to average 17.0 Bcf/d in 2026 and 18.5 Bcf/d in 2027 as new production comes online. Mexico's Energia Costa Azul LNG facility, with capacity of 0.4 Bcf/d, has tripled the country's export capacity. Middle East tensions continue to threaten global gas supplies, pushing Asia's LNG prices to a four-month peak on concerns over shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

The OPEC+ meeting on Aug. 2 will be the next catalyst for oil prices. The decision on the September supply increase, combined with the ongoing supply disruptions, will determine whether the current correction deepens or stabilizes.