Gold near $4,516 an ounce gives Newmont nearly $2,800 of margin per ounce, but rising CAS and AISC costs threaten to eat into the windfall. The Q3 report in late October will show whether execution has caught up with the commodity rally.
Alpha Score of 82 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
Newmont Corporation (NEM) shares rose 7.9% to close at $125.08 on Aug. 19 as gold gained more than 2% and traded near $4,516 an ounce. The rally, tied to Treasury bond buybacks, lower yields and a weaker dollar, has pushed bullion to levels that, for Newmont, imply nearly $2,800 of margin per ounce. The question is whether rising mining costs will absorb enough of that windfall to blunt the benefit for shareholders.
Newmont realized an average gold price of $4,414 an ounce in the second quarter. Attributable gold production fell to 1.29 million ounces from 1.48 million a year earlier. That combination gives the company exceptional price leverage but less support from volume growth.
The company generated $2.2 billion of free cash flow, a non-GAAP measure, and ended June with $9.0 billion of cash, $13.0 billion of total liquidity and $3.4 billion of non-GAAP net cash. The balance sheet gives management room to return capital without sacrificing mine investment, and $4.3 billion remained under its $6.0 billion share-repurchase authorization. Continued buybacks at a time of strong cash generation could amplify the per-share benefit of elevated gold.
Newmont's 2026 sensitivity analysis estimates that every $100-per-ounce change in gold affects pretax revenue and costs by roughly $505 million. Second-quarter realized pricing exceeded Newmont's non-GAAP gold by-product all-in sustaining costs of $1,621 an ounce by about $2,793. The company maintained its full-year outlook for roughly 5.3 million attributable gold ounces and non-GAAP gold by-product AISC of about $1,680 an ounce. At current gold prices, that cost structure still implies significant operating leverage.
The challenge is keeping more of the commodity windfall. Non-GAAP gold by-product CAS per ounce rose 93% sequentially to $1,043, while non-GAAP by-product AISC rose 58% to $1,621. Higher royalties in Ghana, diesel costs and operating pressures at Cadia drove the increase. Newmont expects third-quarter sustaining capital expenditure to rise by roughly $150 million sequentially. Full-year guidance includes $1.95 billion of sustaining capex and $1.4 billion of development capex. Newmont's sensitivity analysis also shows that every $10-per-barrel change in Brent crude affects pretax costs by about $60 million.
Higher gold prices themselves raise royalties, production taxes and profit-sharing expenses. Newmont estimates that every $100 increase in gold adds about $6 an ounce to AISC through those items.
Insider Monkey's hedge fund database shows 82 funds held Newmont positions at the end of the first quarter of 2026, up from 69 funds the prior quarter. Those figures do not capture trades after that date or reactions to the latest gold rally.
Newmont's Alpha Score is 82 out of 100, labelled Strong, in the Materials sector. For a miner with that score, the core tension is straightforward: record gold prices create a powerful earnings and cash-flow opportunity, but rising costs will absorb part of the windfall. Production execution and cost control are the tests for how much value reaches shareholders.
The next scheduled catalyst is the third-quarter production report, due in late October, which will show whether sustaining capex and cost pressures have moderated or accelerated.
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