WTI Crude $95.00 Confluence: The Level That Decides

A breakout above the confluence is not automatic. Traders need three confirmations. First, the H4 candle that clears $95.00 must close above it, not just touch it intraday. Second, volume on that breakout bar should exceed the 20-period average by at least 20%. Third, the RSI on H4 should move above 60 and remain above 55 on the first pullback.

If those conditions are met, the immediate upside target is $96.80 (the March 28 high) and then $98.00 (February resistance). If price fails at the confluence, the first support is the 50-period SMA on H4 near $93.40. A break below that level would open a retest of $91.80.

EIA Inventory Data as the Trigger

The weekly EIA inventory report on Wednesday is the next known catalyst. A draw larger than the five-year average would support a breakout attempt. A build could trigger a rejection at the confluence. OPEC's June meeting follows the following week, though no output change is expected.

Until price puts a daily close above $95.00 or breaks below $93.40, the market is in a hold pattern. The zone remains the most actionable short-term level for crude oil traders. A confirmed breakout or rejection will set the direction for the next swing.