Garth Turner flags food inflation from the Hormuz fertilizer shock and touts Canada's freshwater holdings as a hedge against the water crisis.
Alpha Score of 39 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, weak value, weak quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals — score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
Wildfires and drought across North America and Europe now carry a $150 billion annual price tag in direct climate damage, according to a post by Garth Turner, a Raymond James Financial Advisor who writes the Greater Fool blog. The estimate, Turner wrote, covers losses from fires and floods. Crop failures, human migration, livestock shortages, and water conflicts sit on top of that figure.
In Canada, nearly 650 wildfires are burning, most of them uncontrolled, with close to four million hectares incinerated. Ontario is in the midst of its worst fire season on record, 7,300 square kilometers scorched so far. BC's drought and heat have turned forest into fuel. About 20,000 people were evacuated from the Okanagan district, and the premier declared a province-wide state of emergency.
Washington State is enduring its worst fire season on record, with more than 900 buildings destroyed and 65,000 people displaced around Spokane. Smoke from those fires is expected to drift into the Great Lakes region.
In Spain and France, 330,000 evacuations and 254,000 hectares burned, double the historical average. The Bordeaux wine region of France took a direct hit. June was the second-warmest such month in 177 years of records, trailing only two years ago.
Lake Mead has fallen to a level where the Hoover Dam may stop generating power for the first time since 1935. The Colorado River is in its 25th year of drought, worsened by overuse and a warm winter that cut snowpack. In Germany, the Rhine has dropped so low that scuttled WWII boats are reappearing and commercial freighters key to the heavy industry of several countries are running aground. Low river levels force trucks to replace barges, which raises shipping costs and pushes up emissions, Turner noted.
Parts of India are seeing rainfall down more than 40%, Turner wrote, and the country is the world's largest drawer on groundwater aquifers, depleting them faster than they refill. Scientists call the situation a "global water bankruptcy." A third of the earth's land surface is in drought, and the UN says half the world's population faces water shortages, seasonally or year-round.
The mechanics of the shortage compound themselves, Turner wrote. Heat has intensified evaporation, and urbanization means rainwater is shed instead of absorbed, so the same weather delivers less usable water.
The water stress is feeding directly into food supply chains. Europe's heat wave wiped out nine million tons of grain, worth about $4 billion. A separate shock is building at the Strait of Hormuz, where the Iran war and the shuttered shipping lane have created a fertilizer squeeze. A third of the world's urea and sulphur supply passes through that chokepoint, and prices have risen sharply, pointing to continued food inflation, Turner wrote.
US energy policy is pulling against the climate math. Washington is spending over $4 billion on penalties tied to canceled wind farm projects while opening protected parks and preserves to oil and gas extraction, Turner noted.
Canada holds two million lakes and 20% of global freshwater reserves in bodies of water, aquifers, glaciers, and wetlands, ranking third worldwide for renewable water generation. The country accounts for half a percent of the world's population. "This is a card we must play," Turner wrote.
The contradiction is the Alberta tar sands, which remain among the world's biggest polluters. Turner cited reports that the sector pollutes 64 times more than it claims, with pipelines cheered on so the country can keep shipping bitumen abroad.
Raymond James Financial, the parent firm behind Turner's advisory practice, carries an Alpha Score of 39 out of 100 on AlphaScala, a mixed rating. The RJF stock page tracks the stock.
The Bald Range fire that drove the Okanagan evacuations broke out Friday afternoon and grew to 103 square kilometers within a day, Turner noted, encroaching on Summerland. He closed his post with a plea: "May the flames die soon."
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