Gold and copper paused after the 2025 rally as the dollar strengthened. Freeport-McMoRan and Wheaton Precious Metals face a watchlist decision. The next Fed meeting will determine the direction.
The metals rally that looked like a one-way bet at the end of 2025 has stalled. Gold spot pulled back from its highs, copper stopped climbing, and multi-metal stocks such as Freeport-McMoRan and Wheaton Precious Metals lost their upward momentum. Investors who piled into the trade on expectations of a continuous move up now face a decision: wait out the pause or reposition. The answer depends on what caused the halt and whether those drivers are temporary or structural.
Three forces drove metals higher through late 2025: Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, sustained central bank gold buying, and supply constraints in copper mines. Those catalysts are still in place. A fourth factor shifted against them: the US dollar. The dollar index rose on stronger-than-expected US economic data, raising the cost of dollar-priced commodities for non-US buyers. That repriced gold lower and capped copper. The pause is a story of currency headwinds, not a broken demand thesis.
The first read points to a temporary pullback in a bull trend. The better market read requires examining positioning. Hedge funds had built large net-long positions in gold futures through Q4 2025. When the dollar strengthened, some of those longs were forced to liquidate, amplifying the downside. The same pattern played out in copper. The move lower reflects positioning unwinds, not a collapse in physical demand.
Gold spot fell about 4% from its December peak as the dollar climbed and real yields ticked up. The key question is whether the 200-day moving average will hold as support. If the dollar rally continues, gold could test that level. A break below would shift the narrative from a healthy correction to a deeper reversal.
Gold's fundamental support remains intact. Central banks added over 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2025. The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, though paused, is not reversed. Those two factors are why many analysts still see gold at higher levels by mid-2026. The short-term path depends on the dollar. Traders should watch the DXY and the next US payrolls print. A softer dollar would quickly revive gold bids.
Freeport-McMoRan is a pure-play copper producer, which makes it more sensitive to industrial demand than to monetary policy. Copper rallied on expectations that a global growth recovery, led by China's stimulus, would tighten supply. That trade has paused because China's economic data showed mixed signals–strong exports with weak domestic consumption.
FCX's Alpha Score sits at 60 out of 100 on AlphaScala's framework, a Moderate label. That rating reflects the stock's average risk-adjusted momentum. The score is not a sell signal. It indicates that the stock lacks a clear catalyst to break out of the current range. For FCX to resume its uptrend, copper prices need a fresh catalyst–either a concrete Chinese infrastructure push or a mine outage that tightens supply.
The valuation is not stretched. FCX trades at about 10x forward EBITDA, in line with its five-year average. The risk to the downside is a global recession that cuts copper demand. For now, the pause in copper is a watch-and-wait setup.
Wheaton Precious Metals operates a streaming model: it provides upfront capital to miners in exchange for the right to buy gold and silver at a fixed price. That structure gives it upside leverage to rising metal prices without operating risk. During the rally, WPM outperformed gold because of that leverage. In the pause, the stock has pulled back less than pure miners, which highlights the resilience of the streaming model.
WPM carries an Alpha Score of 68, also Moderate. That is slightly higher than FCX, reflecting stronger relative strength and less earnings volatility. The key metric to track is the margin on delivered ounces. As long as gold stays above $2,300, WPM's profitability is safe. The stock's premium valuation–about 25x forward earnings–requires gold prices to keep rising. A prolonged pause that pushes gold below support would compress that multiple.
The next decision point is the March Fed meeting. If the Fed signals that rate cuts are still on the table, the dollar will weaken and metals will resume their uptrend. If the tone is hawkish, the pause extends. For multi-metal stocks, the path of least resistance over the next month is sideways.
Traders should treat the pause as a re-entry opportunity, not a reason to abandon the trade. The fundamental drivers–central bank buying, mine supply constraints, eventual Fed easing–are still in place. The tactical risk is buying too early before the dollar peaks. A better approach is to wait for a confirmed dollar reversal or for gold to hold above the 200-day MA for two consecutive weeks.
Freeport-McMoRan and Wheaton Precious Metals offer different risk profiles. FCX gives pure copper leverage with a wider drawdown risk. WPM gives gold leverage with a cushion from the streaming margin. A barbell approach–holding both–lets the investor capture whichever metal leads the next leg up. The FCX stock page and WPM stock page have updated Alpha Scores and technical levels to track. For broader context on commodities, see the commodities analysis section and the gold profile.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.