Why J&K's Cloudbursts Are Becoming Deadlier

Ground-level changes have stripped away natural buffers. A University of Kashmir study found nearly 20 wetlands around Srinagar have vanished over five decades. The wetland area in the Jhelum basin shrank from 288.96 sq km in 1972 to 266.45 sq km by 2018. The Comptroller and Auditor General has documented the loss of hundreds of lakes since 1967, erasing nearly 2,900 hectares of flood storage. Global Forest Watch data show the region lost roughly 4,090 hectares of tree cover between 2001 and 2022.

Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, a leading Kashmir earth scientist, told Mint that deforestation and construction do not cause cloudbursts. They increase the severity of flash floods, landslides and debris flows that follow. Degraded catchments convert a much larger proportion of intense rainfall into rapid surface flow. Urbanized areas can generate 20-60% more runoff than natural landscapes during the same rainfall event.

Where people place structures matters as much as how much it rains. “When the water level in the rivers declined during dry years, people started encroaching on their banks and constructing houses,” said Showkat Ali, a government teacher in Poonch. This July, a single cloudburst sent mud, rocks and floodwater through a residential house beside a stream in the Loran area of Poonch, killing eight members of one family.

The economic toll stretches beyond immediate loss of life and property. Tourism is usually the first sector hit. July’s floods in Pahalgam damaged around 20 hotels and washed away a 100-metre stretch of road at the height of the season and the Amarnath Yatra. Agriculture supports nearly 70% of the population. Intense rainfall washes away topsoil, damages orchards and destroys irrigation channels. Last year’s monsoon floods alone caused agricultural losses estimated at ₹209 crore, according to government data.

Hydropower infrastructure is equally vulnerable. An early July downpour sent mud, boulders and debris into the under-construction 540 MW Kwar project site in Kishtwar. The 2014 floods killed more than 100 people and caused losses estimated at ₹1 trillion.

“We need a sustainable tourism policy on priority,” said Kashmir-based climate activist Raja Muzaffar Bhat. “There should be limits on the number of tourists and pilgrims visiting high-altitude areas, and governments must avoid further infrastructure development in fragile mountain regions.” Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has called for climate-resilient infrastructure, better flood management and scientific planning.

Mint contacted Javed Ahmad Rana, J&K minister for Jal Shakti, Forest, Ecology and Environment, seeking his response. Repeated calls to the minister remained unanswered.