NextEra's 33 GW backlog looks impressive, but interconnection delays and gas backup needs show why Enbridge's pipeline cash flows matter just as much for AI power demand.
NextEra Energy (NEE) reported $1.09 in adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter, matching consensus. Revenue came in at $5.73 billion, a touch below the $6.08 billion analysts expected. The headline number that grabbed attention was the 33-gigawatt backlog of renewable projects, up from 26 GW a year ago. That backlog reflects the surge in power purchase agreements from hyperscalers who need round-the-clock carbon-free energy for their AI data centers.
The catch is that the backlog is not the same as delivered power. NextEra added 1.2 GW of new renewables and storage to its portfolio in the quarter. The pace of interconnection approvals and transformer deliveries remains a bottleneck. The company said it expects to bring 7 to 9 GW of new projects online this year. That is a wide range for a firm that prides itself on execution. The difference between the low and high end is roughly the capacity of two large gas plants.
Enbridge (ENB) took a different path. The pipeline giant reported C$1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, up 4% from a year earlier. Its Mainline system, which moves crude from Western Canada to the U.S. Midwest, ran at 98% utilization. The gas transmission business added 1.5 Bcf/d of new capacity from the Rio Bravo pipeline in Texas, which feeds LNG export terminals on the Gulf Coast. Enbridge's regulated pipeline model means 98% of its cash flows are under long-term contracts or cost-of-service agreements. The yield sits at 6.8%.
The AI angle hits both companies differently. NextEra's renewables need gas-fired backup to deliver 100% uptime, because wind and solar do not run on demand. That backup comes from pipelines like Enbridge's. The data center developers signing PPAs with NextEra are also signing gas transport agreements with midstream operators, because the grid cannot guarantee firm power without dispatchable generation. AI's insatiable appetite for electrons is pulling gas demand higher, not just renewables.
NextEra's Alpha Score sits at 53 out of 100, labeled Mixed. The score reflects the tension between a massive project pipeline and the execution risk embedded in supply chains and grid interconnection queues. Enbridge scores 58, labeled Moderate, supported by the contracted cash flow model and the steady demand for gas transport.
NextEra's stock has rallied 18% year to date, pricing in a lot of the AI demand thesis. The risk is that the market is treating the 33 GW backlog as if it were already generating revenue. The backlog will convert over three to five years, and each quarter's interconnection delays push that revenue further out. Enbridge's stock is up 12% this year, with the yield compressing from 7.5% to 6.8% as the price rose. The yield still covers the payout by 1.5 times distributable cash flow.
The next catalyst for both is the pace of data center construction. NextEra's management said on the call that it expects 50% of new PPA signings this year to come from data center customers. Enbridge's gas transmission segment is adding 2.5 Bcf/d of new capacity by 2026, most of it contracted to LNG and power generation. The two companies are not competitors. They are complementary pieces of the same energy system, and the AI buildout needs both.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.