Henry Hub surged 25% in four weeks as data-centre load drives non-seasonal gas demand. The AI energy layer is being priced now.
The artificial intelligence boom has generated a well-telegraphed rally in semiconductors and cloud platforms. A second wave is forming beneath that surface, and it runs on fuel, not code.
Data centres need electricity around the clock. Grids were not designed for the coming load. The International Energy Agency expects global data-centre electricity consumption to rise from roughly 485 terawatt hours in 2025 to about 950 terawatt hours by 2030. That implies growth far above the wider power system, with data centres expanding faster than most grids were designed to absorb.
In the United States, data centres are expected to account for nearly half of all electricity demand growth this decade. That is not a marginal adjustment. It is a structural energy shock.
Natural gas is now expected to meet more than 40% of additional data-centre electricity demand through 2030, according to the IEA. That makes it one of the most critical fuels behind the AI build-out.
“AI is creating a power demand shock that technology stocks cannot solve by themselves,” said Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “The market has priced the intelligence layer. It has not fully priced the energy layer that keeps the entire system alive.”
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang recently warned that the amount of energy required for computing may be “1,000x more than we currently have.” That single statement captures the scale of the challenge now facing global power markets.
The IEA numbers support the claim. Data-centre electricity consumption is projected to almost double in five years, a pace that few national grids are built to handle. Renewables remain essential, their intermittency limits their ability to power round-the-clock AI infrastructure without major backup capacity. Nuclear cannot be built quickly enough. Natural gas can bridge the gap at speed and scale.
The investment case for natural gas is therefore being rebuilt around structural demand, not seasonal weather patterns or storage levels. Traders who still view gas through the old lens of winter heating demand are likely underestimating the secular shift underway.
Henry Hub natural gas futures surged above $3.30 per MMBtu this week, their highest level since early February. The move represented a 15% weekly gain and pushed the four-week rally to nearly 25%.
The price action is not driven by weather or storage alone. Domestic output has declined, and the global demand outlook is improving. The AI power build-out is starting to tighten the physical market before most traders have adjusted their positioning.
Key insight: The investment case for natural gas is being rebuilt around structural demand, not weather. That changes how traders should size exposure and manage roll risk. A cold winter would add upside, it is no longer the primary driver.
President Trump said he would decide on an Iran truce soon, according to recent headlines. The U.S. dollar pulled back on that news, which in turn supports commodity prices priced in USD.
Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has warned that energy inflation tied to the conflict in Iran has lasted longer than expected, creating a “stagflationary shock” for many economies. A ceasefire would remove one layer of risk premium from oil and gas, the structural AI-driven demand would remain.
A weaker dollar is generally positive for natural gas and other USD-denominated commodities. It also opens room for emerging-market currencies and commodity-linked FX to recover.
The dollar pullback has been most visible in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Both pairs have reclaimed recent highs as the greenback gives back gains earned during the Iran escalation. USD/JPY has also eased, with the yen finding a bid as risk appetite stabilises.
For forex traders, the dollar’s direction now hinges on two factors: the Iran ceasefire timeline and the Fed’s reaction to persistent energy inflation. A truce would likely weaken the dollar further in the near term, benefiting risk-sensitive pairs and commodities. A breakdown in talks would reverse the move.
Track the next catalyst using AlphaScala’s forex correlation matrix to see how gas and USD moves align with your pair of interest.
The AI equity side of the trade remains crowded. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) currently carries an Alpha Score of 72/100 (Moderate label) at a price of $217.02, up 1.29% on the day. Valuations in the semiconductor space are stretched by most metrics. Expectations are extreme.
Natural gas offers a different risk-reward profile. The fuel sits at the intersection of AI infrastructure, grid constraints, LNG supply tightness, and geopolitical risk. It is a real asset with a direct demand link to the data-centre build-out.
LNG (Cheniere Energy, Inc.) carries an Alpha Score of 66/100 (Moderate label) in the Energy sector. As the largest U.S. LNG exporter, Cheniere is directly exposed to both domestic gas prices and global LNG demand. That dual exposure makes it a leveraged proxy for the AI gas thesis.
See the full profile on the LNG stock page and compare with NVDA.
Traders should watch two near-term signals. The first is the weekly natural gas storage report from the EIA. Persistent draws or smaller-than-expected injections would confirm that physical tightness is accelerating. The second is the Iran ceasefire decision. A formal truce would remove a geopolitical tail risk for oil and gas prices, the structural demand story from AI remains intact.
Every serious portfolio should now be asking one question: If AI demand keeps accelerating, where will the power come from? The answer increasingly points to natural gas.
For traders looking to size exposure, AlphaScala’s position size calculator and forex pip calculator can help manage risk across both energy and currency positions.
The next phase of the AI cycle may not be decided by processing power alone. It will be decided by electricity. The fuel that delivers it may be the trade that most of the market is still overlooking.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.