Sensex dropped 250 points as US-Iran military strike raised oil supply fears. Traders now watch Tehran's response and Brent price action for next move.
A US military strike on Iran sent Indian equity markets sliding and refocused attention on crude oil supply risk. The Sensex fell 250 points. The Nifty hovered near 24,000. Traders repriced the probability of a broader Middle East conflict that could disrupt Persian Gulf shipping lanes. India's heavy reliance on imported crude makes it one of the most exposed large economies to an oil price spike.
The immediate commodity question is whether the strike affects chokepoint transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has previously threatened to close the strait in response to military action. Any sustained disruption would cut off roughly 20% of global seaborne oil flows. The last time a similar geopolitical risk premium was priced, after the 2019 Abqaiq attacks, Brent crude spiked 15% in days. This time, the trigger is a direct attack on Iranian assets, which could invite a retaliatory blockade or asymmetric strikes on Saudi and UAE infrastructure.
Traders are watching Brent pricing for the magnitude of the disruption premium. A sustained move higher would directly increase India's import costs. The country imports about 85% of its crude needs. Every dollar of sustained increase adds measurable pressure to the trade deficit. Investors should review the impact of past Hormuz diversions on shipping costs, as detailed in CMB.TECH's Q1 deck.
Indian equities fell on two compounding channels. The first is the direct burden of higher fuel costs on corporate margins, especially for airlines, logistics, and auto firms. The second is the macroeconomic hit: a larger oil import bill widens the current account deficit and adds pressure on the rupee. A weaker rupee lifts dollar-denominated debt servicing costs for Indian corporates.
Among the trending stocks in the session were HDFC Bank (HDB), Infosys (INFY), and Wipro (WIT). These names carry different exposures. Infosys and Wipro are IT exporters that benefit from a weaker rupee, so the currency move partially offsets the macro risk. HDFC Bank is a domestic lender more sensitive to local interest rate expectations, which could shift if the Reserve Bank of India sees inflation risk from higher oil prices.
On AlphaScala's scoring system, INFY holds an Alpha Score of 57/100, labeled Moderate, while WIT scores 46/100 (Mixed) and HDB scores 39/100 (Mixed). The scores suggest a neutral-to-cautious setup across the board, with no strong directional conviction from positioning data.
The risk event could fade if both sides signal de-escalation. A US statement limiting the strike to a specific military target without follow-up operations, combined with a measured Iranian response, would likely unwind the crude premium within a few sessions. Traders should track State Department and Iranian foreign ministry statements for any diplomatic language.
The risk worsens if Iran retaliates against oil infrastructure in the Gulf, if the US escalates with further strikes, or if Iran's proxy forces in Yemen or Iraq attack Saudi facilities. Any actual disruption of tanker traffic through Hormuz would trigger a sharp Brent reprice and force Indian refineries to source replacement barrels from Africa or the US at a higher cost.
Indian investors should also monitor the rupee's trajectory against the dollar. A break above 85 per dollar would signal that the macro adjustment is becoming more painful, likely prompting renewed intervention from the Reserve Bank of India. The next concrete catalyst is the first full trading session after the strike, when Asian markets open and Brent settles.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.