
ETH Zurich researchers show ratio-based portfolio rules beat utility maximization under leverage limits, with a 0.12 higher annualized Sharpe and lower drawdowns.
A new paper from researchers at ETH Zurich and the University of Zurich shows that portfolio rules designed for ratio-type periodic evaluation – think Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, or Calmar ratio – outperform standard expected-utility maximization when the investor faces convex trading constraints like leverage limits or margin requirements.
The paper, posted to arXiv this week, models an investor who is evaluated not on terminal wealth but on a ratio of performance to risk over discrete evaluation periods. That matches how most institutional mandates actually work: a fund's Sharpe ratio over the last 12 months determines bonus pools, capital allocations, and client redemptions.
Under convex constraints – the kind that bind in practice, like a 2x leverage cap or a VaR limit – the optimal strategy under ratio evaluation differs sharply from the Merton-style solution that maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth. The ratio-optimal investor takes less leverage early in the evaluation period and more later, once the denominator (risk) is locked in. The utility-maximizer does the opposite.
The authors prove existence and uniqueness of the optimal policy under a general stochastic factor model, and they derive a verification theorem that lets them compute the policy numerically. For a simple one-factor model calibrated to S&P 500 and Treasury data, the ratio-optimal strategy delivers a 0.12 higher annualized Sharpe than the utility-maximizing strategy, with lower drawdowns.
That gap widens when the evaluation period shortens. A fund evaluated quarterly, the paper shows, should trade more conservatively early in the quarter than one evaluated annually. The intuition: a bad start to the quarter is harder to recover from when the evaluation window is short, so the optimal policy front-loads risk management, not risk taking.
For traders and allocators, the paper offers a concrete framework. The optimal leverage path under ratio evaluation is a function of the remaining time in the evaluation period, the current ratio, and the constraint set. The authors provide a closed-form approximation for the single-factor case that can be implemented in a spreadsheet.
The paper's main limitation is its assumption that the evaluation ratio is known and fixed. In practice, a fund's mandate may switch between ratios or add new constraints mid-period. The authors flag that as an open problem.
A preprint is available on arXiv.
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