Which U.S. States and Products Face the Biggest USMCA Termination Risk

The July 1 deadline for the USMCA review will pass without a deal. Fitful negotiations between the United States, Canada, and Mexico have made little progress, and President Trump is pressing hard on trade imbalances, immigration, and drug trafficking without offering any tariff concessions. The chance of an outright termination of the 2020 pact remains remote. It is not zero.

Under the USMCA's six-year review process, any party can trigger a six-month termination notice. That alone would restore most favored nation tariffs: about 3% by the U.S., 6% by Canada, and 7% by Mexico. A more aggressive path would see Washington impose uniform 10–15% tariffs on imports from both neighbors, plus national-security levies of 50% on steel and 25% on the non–North American content of autos. Canada and Mexico would almost certainly retaliate against specific U.S. exports.

Census Bureau data on origin-of-movement exports for 2025 lay out exactly where the pain would land. The analysis groups U.S. states by exposure, product category, and political alignment. Seven of the nine high-impact states voted for Trump in 2024.

Texas is the single most exposed state. It exported $42.6 billion of petroleum products (HS 2709, 2710, 2711) to Canada and Mexico last year. That is a figure that would concentrate the minds of oil producers and their congressional delegations. Data-processing machines and parts (HS 8471, 8473) from Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California added another $33 billion. That corridor includes assembly lines for Dell, HP, and Apple. Semiconductors (HS 8542) from the same four states totaled $11 billion, covering CPUs and GPUs from Intel, AMD, and NVIDIA.

Civilian aircraft exports to Canada and Mexico reached $11 billion, split among factories in Texas, Washington, Florida, Kentucky, California, and Ohio. Boeing is a key player in that group.

Nine product categories at the HS-4 level each exceed $10 billion in two-way North American trade. Autos and auto parts form the largest single bloc. They would be easy targets for Canadian or Mexican retaliation if the U.S. escalates its own tariffs on vehicle imports.

Nine states have combined per capita exports to Canada and Mexico above $2,000: Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, and Arizona. Each one is linked to cross-border supply chains in manufacturing, energy, or agriculture. A termination scenario would hit employment, corporate earnings, and state tax revenue directly.

For individual companies, the stakes show up in AlphaScala's proprietary scores. NVIDIA (Alpha Score 66, moderate) relies on the North American market for a meaningful share of its semiconductor shipments. AMD (Alpha Score 51, mixed) faces similar exposure. Boeing (Alpha Score 33, weak) has $11 billion of civilian aircraft exports at risk across multiple states. The broader market context is available in AlphaScala's stock market analysis.

The political blowback from powerful interests could deter the Trump administration from pushing termination. Auto makers, semiconductor firms, and oil producers all employ workers in swing and Republican-leaning states. Lobbying weight and midterm politics argue against a rupture. Still, the review has stalled, the demands are rising, and the data show exactly where the retaliation would land. Texas alone exported $42.6 billion of petroleum to its North American neighbors in 2025.