Wheat Futures Jump as USDA Sees Smallest US Crop Since 1970

Export demand has stayed steady through the drop. Weekly sales data showed 412,000 tonnes in new bookings, with Mexico and the Philippines taking the largest volumes. That pace, if sustained, would drain already tight inventories faster than the USDA's baseline.

The last time U.S. ending stocks were this thin, in 2008, wheat prices hit $13 a bushel. The current contract settled at $6.87.

Global supplies offer some relief. Black Sea wheat remains competitive, and Australian harvests have been large. The U.S. share of world exports has shrunk to roughly 15%, down from 25% a decade ago, meaning domestic shortages now hit the local cash market harder than international prices.