
Westpac's PE and dividend discount models produce a wide valuation spread. The gross DDM, including franking, values the stock at $48.64, 37% above the current $35.37 price.
Westpac shares trade at $35.37. Two common valuation methods produce a range from about $34 to $49, depending on assumptions about dividends and franking credits.
The price-earnings ratio uses FY24 earnings of $1.92 per share. That gives a PE of 18.4x. The banking sector average is 19x. Applying that sector average to Westpac's earnings yields a valuation of $36.20. The stock sits at a small discount to that level.
The dividend discount model values a stock by discounting future dividends back to today. Westpac paid $1.66 per share in dividends over the last 12 months. Using a dividend growth rate and a risk rate between 6% and 11%, the model returns a valuation of $35.10. Adjusting the dividend to $1.61 per share drops that to $34.05.
Franking credits change the picture. For eligible shareholders, the gross dividend – cash plus franking credits – comes to $2.30 per share. Plugging that into the same DDM yields a valuation of $48.64. That figure is 37% above the current share price. It applies only to investors who can fully use the franking credits.
The wide gap between $34 and $49 shows how much the valuation depends on tax status and model assumptions. The PE method points to a fair value near $36. The DDM with regular dividends lands close to that same level. The gross DDM offers a much higher number. That number only works for franking-eligible holders.
The gross DDM valuation of $48.64 is 37% above the current price. That number only applies to investors who can use franking credits.
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