Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, Nvidia's 9% surge, and gold's best month since 1999 define the macro picture as oil eases and BTC rises. Fed division and Treasury buybacks add to the backdrop.
Alpha Score of 73 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, weak value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
Kevin Warsh takes the podium at Jackson Hole on Friday. The Fed chairman has been explicit that he will not use the occasion to offer forward guidance on rates. The annual symposium opened Thursday, but market attention is fixed on Warsh's address, scheduled for later in the day.
Warsh said at his July press conference that he wants to frame big questions, productivity and demographic shifts amid global supply shocks, rather than preview September's meeting, according to his remarks.
The Fed's internal divisions are on display. At the July meeting, three of the 12 voting members called for a rate hike. The minutes showed most participants agreed that policy firming would be necessary if inflation did not ease. Since then, July CPI and PPI have come in softer, but July PCE reached 3.7% year-on-year at the headline, matching June's reading, while core remained unchanged. Inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target since February 2021, 65 months.
The backdrop is complicated by geopolitics. The US-Iran conflict has entered its sixth month, creating uncertainty for oil prices and inflation expectations. Iran is drawing up conditions for freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which has helped ease some supply fears. WTI and Brent crude are on track for weekly losses, snapping a two-week winning streak.
On the fiscal side, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently announced the Treasury will at least double its bond buybacks to control the long end of the yield curve. The 30-year yield had hit a 19-year high before the announcement. Yields erased the initial relief rally within 48 hours, and the curve remains elevated.
Away from Jackson Hole, Nvidia stole the session. The company's CFO, Colette Kress, delivered a rare long-term full-year outlook alongside guidance for the upcoming quarter, pointing to roughly 70% revenue growth next year. NVDA shares surged nearly 9% on Thursday. The stock's Alpha Score stands at 73/100, a Moderate label, with the current price at $227.98 after the gain.
All major US equity benchmarks rose on Thursday, but breadth was one-sided. Technology led the advance, with about 150 S&P 500 names rising against 350 fallers. Asian markets struggled to sustain the enthusiasm this morning, with Korean chipmakers slipping while Taiwanese suppliers and Japan's Nikkei edged higher. European equity index futures point to a modestly positive open, and US equity index futures are mixed.
Gold is on track for its best month since 1999, according to Aaron Hill, chief market analyst at FP Markets. Hill said daily support is in play around $4,585, with resistance overhead between $4,857 and $4,764.
In FX, the dollar index ended broadly flat on Thursday, off its best levels, with US Treasury yields higher across the curve but largely stable. Bitcoin is on track to add 3% this week, following last week's 23% rally. Daily resistance at $80,540 is active, and any follow-through upside would target the next layer at $85,120, Hill said.
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