Vietnam lychee harvest halved, prices spike on poor weather

The reduced supply feeds into broader fresh-produce inflation across Vietnam and export markets. Luc Ngan normally ships thousands of tonnes domestically and to markets including China, the U.S. and Japan. A 50% output drop means less volume for export, higher retail prices, and tighter margins for distributors who must compete for limited fruit.

The industry supports farmers, traders and seasonal workers across the region. During peak harvest, the area also draws visitors. This year the smaller crop will squeeze incomes for growers even as spot prices rise. Traders like Thuy and Huyen face the opposite pressure: higher input costs with no guarantee they can pass the full increase to end buyers.

The next concrete marker is how quickly the remaining supply moves through the chain. If prices stay elevated through July, Vietnamese fresh-fruit exporters may lose share to competitors in Thailand and China, where lychee harvests faced different weather. Traders said the current dynamic mirrors past poor seasons where margins compressed for mid-chain buyers while orchard-gate prices spiked.

No official output figures have been released by the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture. The half-crop estimate comes from local trade sources. The situation will be clearer once weekly shipment data from Luc Ngan's main collection yards begins to flow.