U.S. national debt hits $40 trillion as July deficit reaches $432 billion. Interest costs exceed Pentagon spending. Geopolitical and health risks mount. Amazon (AMZN) Alpha Score 66.
Alpha Score of 49 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, weak value, moderate sentiment. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
The U.S. national debt is days away from crossing $40 trillion. The July budget deficit alone hit $432 billion, the Treasury reported. Interest on the debt came to $118 billion for the month – more than the Pentagon spent on military personnel in the same period, according to Congressional Budget Office data.
At the current pace, the debt-to-GDP ratio will push past 120% by year-end, a level not seen since World War II. The interest cost alone now consumes roughly 15% of federal revenue, up from 8% five years ago, Treasury data show. That leaves less room for discretionary spending on defense, infrastructure, and social programs without additional borrowing.
“The math is unsustainable,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “We are in a debt spiral where higher debt leads to higher interest costs, which leads to more debt.”
The widening deficit comes as the Federal Reserve keeps rates at 5.25%-5.50%. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen 40 basis points since June, partly reflecting term premium for the growing supply of government bonds. Primary dealers surveyed by the New York Fed in July said they expect the Treasury to increase auction sizes across maturities in the next quarter.
Separately, the Iran conflict is tightening global oil supply. The United Arab Emirates said Iran attacked two of its vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the latest in a series of incidents that have disrupted shipping. A senior Iranian commander claimed the strait is “under Iran’s control.” Brent crude rose 1.2% to $89.50 a barrel on the news. Fuel theft in the UK has jumped 20% since the war began in February, the BBC reported, as pump prices surge.
The global fertilizer crisis, exacerbated by the conflict, is deepening hunger in Somalia. The number of people facing emergency food insecurity has doubled to 2 million, according to Plan International. About 2 million people are facing emergency levels of food insecurity, more than double the number recorded last year, the group said.
Health risks are also mounting. The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has spread to a sixth province, with more than 2,100 deaths from 4,500 cases, government figures show. At the same point in the 2014-16 outbreak, 755 cases had been recorded, WHO data show. The screwworm infestation in Mexico has caused over 500 human cases since 2025, with six deaths, a study in Emerging Infectious Diseases found. The FDA upgraded a recall of 3 million dozen eggs to Class I over Salmonella Enteritidis contamination.
Amazon (AMZN) shares fell 0.8% to $265.13 on Friday, with the broader market absorbing the mix of fiscal and geopolitical risks. The stock’s Alpha Score stands at 66, a Moderate reading, according to AlphaScala data.
The Treasury is scheduled to announce its next quarterly refunding in October. That will give the first detailed look at borrowing needs for the remainder of the fiscal year.
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