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US-Iran Deal, Fed, BoJ: Crypto's Risk Stack This Week
The crypto market faces a heavy macro week with a potential US-Iran peace deal and a Fed decision under Warsh. A BoJ rate hike could unwind the yen carry trade.
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The crypto market enters one of its heaviest macro weeks this year. On the table: a potential US-Iran peace deal and a Federal Reserve rate decision under a new chair. The Bank of Japan meets the same week and could lift rates to levels not seen since 1995.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the peace deal on X, saying both sides had declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations. A signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. The agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments, and lower geopolitical tensions that have weighed on risk assets.
The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee meets June 16-17. Markets expect no change to the federal funds rate, currently in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Traders will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy statement and press conference for clues on the inflation outlook and the pace of future rate moves. Before the decision, the week brings housing starts Tuesday and retail sales Wednesday. Initial jobless claims land Thursday. Economists expect claims to dip to 226,000 from 229,000. Traders said a lower print would keep rates steady longer, a negative for high-beta assets like crypto.