Earnings calls spiked tariff mentions after Trump's April 2025 tariffs, with 85% of companies citing them by Q2. That share fell to 34% a year later, researchers found.
Corporate mentions of tariffs surged in the second quarter of 2025 after President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff announcement, then dropped sharply a year later, according to a new analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Researchers Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zachary Resneck examined transcripts of 920 earnings calls across S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600 companies from January 2025 through July 2026. They counted passages containing the word "tariff." In the second quarter of 2025, 85 percent of calls mentioned tariffs, averaging six passages per call. By the second quarter of 2026, that share had fallen to 34 percent, with an average of one tariff mention per call.
The pattern varied by sector. Industrials and materials companies led on tariff mentions, reflecting their dependence on physical goods. Consumer discretionary also showed frequent talk. Service sectors like communication services, utilities, and real estate mentioned tariffs less often. Every sector hit its tariff-talking peak in the second quarter of 2025.
Frank Sullivan, chair of RPM International Inc., a coatings and paints maker, said on a July 22, 2026 earnings call: "Our guess is it's going to be another volatile year. We have an administration that seems to not like stability." RPM, classified in the basic materials sector, falls under the S&P 600 index. AlphaScala data rates RPM as Unscored with no available score.
Smaller market-cap companies might be expected to worry more about tariffs given weaker negotiating power and fewer resources to seek exemptions. But the data showed consistent behavior across the three market-cap groups. Companies in the S&P 500, 400, and 600 followed the same general pattern, the researchers found.
The decline in mentions could reflect firms adapting to tariffs as a new norm, or deciding that silence was safer on a politically charged topic. The researchers did not offer a single explanation but noted the drop suggests executives view tariff policy as less shocking than a year ago.
The risk remains that Trump could impose new tariff shocks. If declining corporate pushback is read as acquiescence, the analysis warned, Trump might raise tariffs further despite potential harm to businesses and consumers. That scenario would likely spike tariff mentions again in future earnings calls.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's reciprocal tariffs as unconstitutional in February 2025. He followed that ruling by announcing temporary tariffs that expired on July 24, 2025, the same day he ordered new tariffs that he said would combat forced labor. The policy path remains unclear.
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