Ukraine's ERAM and Starlink Push Tests Russia's Red Lines

President Volodymyr Zelensky's request for permission to use Starlink to target mobile Russian missile launchers, combined with a push to integrate ERAM missiles on F-16s, represents the latest test of the West's gradual escalation strategy against Moscow, according to a new analysis by Oleg Tsarev, a veteran Ukrainian political leader now living in Crimea.

Tsarev, writing on August 1, describes the current restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range Western weapons inside Russia as a deliberate policy of "boiling a frog in warm water." The goal, he argues, is to increase pressure step by step without triggering a sharp Russian response. "We must not forget that when the West decides that it is time, all restrictions will be lifted," Tsarev wrote.

The immediate focal points are two specific weapons systems. The State Department in August 2025 approved the sale of up to 3,350 ERAM missiles worth $825 million, paid for by Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway. The missiles have a range of about 450 kilometers, accuracy around ten meters, and are resistant to electronic warfare. The Pentagon, however, has limited deliveries to roughly a thousand missiles over two years, or about forty per month. Integration with the F-16 has not been completed, and separate Pentagon approval is required for each target type inside Russia.

Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, writing in the Washington Post on July 31, argued that Ukraine should use F-16s with ERAM missiles to hit Russian launchers before launch, rather than intercepting missiles with scarce Patriot batteries. Montgomery's column lobbies for lifting the restrictions, which he said could be done in a few weeks. No decision has been made, Tsarev reports.

A second escalation vector involves Starlink, the satellite constellation operated by SpaceX. Ukraine currently uses the network only over its own territory. Long-range drones that strike Russian refineries rely on inertial navigation and optical terrain recognition, which works for stationary targets. For mobile launchers, Kiev needs a real-time operator and a communication channel over Russia – that is Starlink. Some drones have been found with spoofed circuit boards that report false coordinates, but the workaround is unreliable and cannot scale to hundreds of UAVs, according to Tsarev. Zelensky has asked Trump for permission to use Starlink for strikes. Trump said he would talk to Elon Musk. Musk refused a meeting with Zelensky, Tsarev reports.

Tsarev's analysis echoes a broader view among Russian strategists that the West's objective is the permanent weakening of Russia, a continuation of a Hundred Years War against Moscow. An old comrade of Tsarev is quoted in the essay: "We must stop reacting to every Trump tweet, European declaration, Zelensky speech. We must start labelling the system that produces those strikes and strike at that."

The risk of a sudden Russian counter-escalation – a cyberattack on critical infrastructure, a strike on a NATO supply route, or a direct confrontation with F-16s – has kept energy prices elevated, with Brent crude trading near $85 as the market prices in a widening conflict, similar to the dynamics seen when oil pierced $100 after US strikes on Iran. Defense stocks and broader European security premiums have also been volatile, reflecting the same uncertainty.

For now, the concrete markers are the integration of ERAM on F-16s and the Pentagon's next approval for target types. The Pentagon has not said when those steps will occur. The next meeting between Trump and Zelensky could produce a decision on Starlink access, but no date has been set. Musk, after refusing a meeting with Zelensky, has not commented publicly on the request.

Tsarev's essay was published on August 1. He lives in Crimea and publishes daily on Telegram. The translation and commentary were provided by John Helmer, a veteran journalist.