
UK firms' year-ahead CPI expectations fell to 3.4% in July, the Bank of England's DMP survey showed. Wage growth cooled to 4.0%, while employment remained weak but improved slightly.
British businesses trimmed their inflation expectations again in July, with the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel survey showing a drop in year-ahead CPI forecasts to 3.4%, down from 3.7% in the three months to June. Three-year-ahead CPI expectations edged down to 2.8% from 2.9%.
The July survey, conducted between the 3rd and 17th and drawing 1,982 responses, also showed firms' own-price growth expectations softening. Year-ahead own-price inflation fell 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%. Realised own-price growth held steady at 3.8%.
Wage growth is cooling, too. Firms reported annual wage growth of 4.0% in the three months to July, down 0.1 percentage points from the prior period. Expected year-ahead wage growth slipped to 3.4%, implying firms expect wage growth to drop 0.6 points over the next year.
Employment data remained weak but showed a slight improvement. Realised annual employment growth was -0.4%, up from -0.6%. Expectations for employment over the next year stayed at -0.1%.
Since April, the DMP has asked firms how they expect the energy shock to affect them. In July, 55% of firms expected to raise prices, down 9 points from April, while 64% expected lower profit margins, down from 68%. The impact on wages remained modest: 19% of firms expected wages to rise and 17% expected them to fall.
The DMP, run by the Bank of England with King's College London and the University of Nottingham, covers own prices across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms. The next release is scheduled for September 4.
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