UK harvest heads for worst since 1984 with farmers warning of vegetable shrinkflation; grocers are already importing Spanish broccoli and iceberg in August
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England and Wales just recorded their driest July since records began 190 years ago, and the UK's 2023 harvest is now set to be the worst in nearly four decades. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a think tank, estimates the cereals and oilseed crop will come in at 19.5 million tonnes, 2.5 million tonnes below earlier forecasts. It would be the lowest total since records began in 1984.
The previous low, 19.8 million tonnes, came in 2020. The ECIU put the revenue loss at roughly £390 million. The Environment Agency has declared drought conditions across half of England and all of Wales.
The barley and rapeseed harvest, the raw material behind beer and breakfast cereals, is set to take the brunt. The same crops make livestock feed, which extends the cost pressure into dairy and meat, not just the produce aisle.
This is the third poor harvest in a row. Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said the dry April and record heat have left farmers "facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row." Farming, he said, is "the sector most exposed to climate change and the risks and damage that it brings."
Tim O'Malley, chairman of Nationwide Produce, told BBC Radio 5 Live the situation was "as bad as it's ever been." He expects shoppers to see shrinkflation, the practice of shrinking pack sizes or produce dimensions while holding the price.
"The problem we're going to have this year is a massive reduction in yield and major quality issues," O'Malley said. "We've got crop with stress or we've got quality issues. So you will see a smaller crop."
He said supermarkets will "do everything" to keep prices where they are. Eventually they will probably have to raise them, he added, "particularly if they start importing."
The imports are already underway.
Grocers are pulling in produce from abroad because of the poor domestic conditions. "We're importing broccoli and iceberg from Spain at this time of year, which in August [is] unheard of. I think we're going to see more of that, unfortunately," O'Malley said.
The scale shows up in the rainfall data. Wales has received just 8% of its average rainfall so far this month, England 7%. Southern England has seen as little as 1%, according to the Environment Agency. The high temperatures and repeated heatwaves have lifted evaporation rates, and rivers have taken the worst of it.
Farmers carry summer water on farm from stored winter rainfall, then top up through abstraction, the licensed extraction of groundwater or surface water from rivers and streams. Rainfall this far below normal leaves both sources running dry.
Climate change is expected to bring more frequent and longer-lasting heatwaves to UK summers in the coming years, a pattern that would deepen the water shortages. That prospect is already shifting attitudes on the ground.
Martin Lines, a farmer from Cambridgeshire who heads the Nature Friendly Farming Network, called this year's harvest "a real kick in the teeth." After two poor years, the crops were "looking good and full of potential coming out of spring, only for months of drought and heatwaves to destroy any prospect of a decent harvest."
"I've never known it this dry and hot on our farm," Lines said. "Even farmers I know who were sceptical of climate change are now saying they're really worried about the future of their businesses and production, it's just been completely brutal for our industry."
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