Trump seeks year-round E15 sales, a boost for ADM

The Trump administration asked Congress to pass a law allowing year-round sales of gasoline blended with 15% ethanol. The request, made in a letter to House and Senate leaders last week, is the White House's first formal legislative push on the fuel since Trump returned to office.

Current federal rules restrict E15 – gasoline with 15% ethanol, compared with the standard 10% blend – during summer months because of volatility concerns tied to smog formation. A permanent waiver would let retailers sell it throughout the year, a change the ethanol industry has sought for years.

Year-round access would raise ethanol demand by roughly 300 million to 500 million gallons annually, according to industry estimates. That translates into more bushels of corn crushed at ethanol plants and higher operating rates for the nation's biorefineries. The U.S. ethanol industry runs at about 1 million barrels a day of capacity; a demand lift of that size would tighten margins across the corn-ethanol chain.

For Archer-Daniels-Midland, the largest U.S. ethanol producer by volume, the policy shift is a direct tailwind. ADM's Agricultural Services segment, which includes corn processing and ethanol, has been squeezed by weak ethanol margins and lower domestic demand in recent years. In its last quarterly filing, the company said ethanol margins fell sharply as supply outpaced blending mandates. A year-round E15 rule would put a floor under those margins, analysts at two firms told clients this week.

ADM shares have drifted lower this year, down roughly 8% year to date. The stock carries an AlphaScala Score of 45 out of 100, reflecting mixed momentum and fundamentals. The ethanol catalyst is not yet priced in, traders said; most were focused on the company's oilseeds crushing margins and global trade flows.

The legislative path is not straightforward. Oil refiners oppose the year-round waiver, arguing that it would divert corn away from animal feed and raise food prices. Some environmental groups also object on grounds that more ethanol blending increases land-use pressure. The American Petroleum Institute called the administration's proposal "misguided" and said it would undermine the Renewable Fuel Standard's original structure.

Even so, the White House letter carries weight. It directs the Environmental Protection Agency to work with Congress on drafting the bill, and it frames the policy as a way to lower pump prices and reduce reliance on imported oil. The administration wants the bill passed before summer driving season, when E15 restrictions currently kick in.

A handful of ethanol producers with large corn-processing footprints would benefit alongside ADM. Companies like Green Plains and POET operate similarly scaled networks of dry-mill plants. The difference for ADM is its integration into global grain trading and biodiesel production, which would amplify the impact of higher ethanol margins across several business lines.

No bill has been introduced yet. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee is expected to hold a hearing on the proposal in the coming weeks. For traders watching the ethanol complex, the next concrete marker is any sign of bipartisan cosponsors. If the bill clears committee, the probability of year-round E15 passes 50%, several ethanol lobbyists said. Until then, it remains a policy request with uncertain timing.