
Senator Thune confirms Clarity Act as first vote after August recess, as September window becomes last chance for 2026 passage. Polymarket odds fall to 14%.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed the Clarity Act will be the first item on the floor when the Senate returns from its August recess, pushing a vote on the crypto bill to mid-September.
"We're getting that queued up first thing when we come back," Thune told reporters.
The procedural delay follows a Democratic filibuster that blocked a pre-recess vote. The bill needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and Republicans hold 53 seats. Thune said Democrats insisted on no Clarity Act vote while negotiations continue on ethics provisions, illicit finance language, and consumer protections.
"The Dems are insistent on no Clarity vote," Thune said. "I worked with sponsors of the bill. Senator Cynthia Lummis was great."
The crypto industry also awaits President Trump's decision on bipartisan ethics counteroffers sent to the White House. A response is expected in days as the White House began negotiating the Clarity Act's ethics provisions with both parties.
Senator Thom Tillis backtracked on the ethics deal, telling reporters the White House has not been in touch on the bipartisan proposal. "Hopefully we'll hear back," he said, adding he may release his proposal publicly.
Senator Cynthia Lummis is expected to continue work on the bill's text over the recess, primarily on remaining ethics issues. She is also in discussions with Senator Josh Hawley to resolve concerns.
The Senate began its five-week recess Thursday and returns in mid-September. Senators will have a 15-day window of session before focus shifts to the November midterm elections, with Trump pushing to pass the SAVE America Act.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wants more time for Clarity Act talks. The bill remains stalled as Democrats and banks raised concerns over current draft language on ethics rules, illicit finance, and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA).
For the crypto industry, the September window is widely viewed as the last realistic opportunity for the bill this year. Missing it could push Clarity Act into 2027 or later. Polymarket shows a 14% chance of the Clarity Act signed into law in 2026, down after Thune held off on a cloture filing earlier this week.
The odds have tumbled from higher levels in July as the Senate schedule tightened. A cloture motion remains a prerequisite for a floor vote, and Thune has not yet filed one. The compressed 15-day session between recess and the midterms leaves little room for procedural maneuvering, especially if Democrats continue to demand more time.
On the ethics front, the White House has been reviewing bipartisan counteroffers. A decision could determine whether Senator Tillis and other Republicans who expressed reservations about the current draft get on board. Tillis said he may release his proposal publicly if the White House does not respond, a move that could open a new avenue for negotiations – or complicate them.
Lummis, the bill's lead sponsor, will work on text over the recess with an eye on ethics language and outstanding concerns raised by Senator Hawley. Any changes she agrees to would need to hold the existing Republican coalition, which is already narrow.
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Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act odds sink to 27% after Senate delays crypto bill and remain on the decline.
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