Three AI stocks to watch this week as traders expect giant moves

Traders are piling into options bets on three AI-focused chip stocks this week, with Cerebras Systems reporting its first earnings since going public Tuesday and Micron Technology following Wednesday. Super Micro Computer is drawing the heaviest call volume after announcing a new data center blueprint built on Nvidia architecture.

Cerebras has fallen nearly 30% from its first-day close after its IPO last month. Options markets imply an 11.5% swing after the earnings print, reflecting uncertainty around the company's growth trajectory as a newly public entity. A strong report could reverse the slide; a miss would likely deepen the losses.

Micron added almost 6% Monday to $1,204, bringing its year-to-date gain to 280%. Implied volatility sits at 116, the highest reading in the S&P 500 alongside Sandisk and Western Digital. Options pricing points to a 10% move after earnings, the largest implied swing for a Micron report since December 2024.

The options flow in Micron was balanced by contract count Monday, with roughly as many calls as puts traded. The notional value told a different story. Call premiums accounted for $2.6 billion of the $3.3 billion in total options notional, according to SpotGamma. The single largest trade across the entire U.S. options market Monday was a $61 million purchase of 800 of the 430-strike Micron call expiring July 17. That deep in-the-money position behaves like a long stock proxy, giving the buyer delta exposure without the same capital outlay as buying shares.

With implied volatility so elevated, in-the-money calls are less vulnerable to the typical post-earnings volatility crush. The high premium means out-of-the-money options could see a sharper decline if the stock doesn't move enough to justify the pricing. That dynamic may explain the call selling seen in Micron and in the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM). On Monday, 34,000 calls were sold in DRAM versus fewer than 20,000 bought, according to ThinkOrSwim data. That suggests some traders are harvesting premium rather than betting on further upside.

Super Micro Computer saw the most aggressive bullish positioning. The stock rose 16% after the company unveiled a data center blueprint using Nvidia's architecture. More than 320,000 calls traded in SMCI Monday, compared with just 64,000 puts. Traders bought nearly 10 calls for every put, according to ThinkOrSwim. The most active contract by volume was the 40-strike call expiring Friday, with over 24,000 contracts traded, SpotGamma data show.

Super Micro Computer carries an Alpha Score of 48 out of 100, a Mixed label that reflects the tension between the recent rally and the still-high options premium. The stock's SMCI stock page shows the options flow has been heavily skewed bullish for weeks.

Nvidia, whose architecture underpins SMCI's new blueprint, carries an Alpha Score of 69, a Moderate label. The stock's NVDA stock page shows it remains a key bellwether for AI demand.

The week's options activity across these three names shows a market betting on big moves but also hedging aggressively. The $61 million Micron call trade and the 320,000 SMCI call contracts are the standout signals. Whether those bets pay off depends on earnings beats and the broader AI demand narrative. Cerebras's first earnings report as a public company will set the tone for its post-IPO valuation. Micron's high implied volatility means the stock needs to deliver a significant move to justify the premium already priced in. SMCI's call buying is extreme. The stock has already rallied 16%, leaving less room for error.