Thailand lychee harvest seen plunging 39% on erratic weather

Thailand's lychee output is set to fall by nearly 39% in 2026 after erratic weather disrupted flowering and fruit-setting, the Office of Agricultural Economics said in a production and price outlook report released June 18.

The OAE estimates total lychee output at only 22,000 tonnes this year, down from roughly 36,000 tonnes a year earlier. Harvested area is projected to shrink 1.51% to around 77,000 rai, or about 12,300 hectares, while average yields could plunge by almost 38%.

The damage traces to conditions between late December 2025 and February 2026. Intermittent cold spells alternating with periods of unusually high temperatures disrupted flowering across key growing areas. Drought during fruit-setting further reduced the number of marketable lychees per tree.

A similar but less severe pattern hit longans. OAE Secretary-General Peerapan Korthong said the ministry expects longan production of roughly 1.4 million tonnes in 2026, down nearly 9% from the prior year. Harvested area is seen at about 1.61 million rai, a decline of 1.27%, while average yields are projected to fall 7.57% to 867 kg per rai.

The supply squeeze has kept prices elevated. In May 2026, farm-gate prices for fresh longans ranged from 21.5 to 25.75 THB, or about 66 to 79 U.S. cents per kg, depending on quality. Hong Huay lychees sold at 20.5 to 22 THB per kg, while premium Chakkraphat lychees harvested later in the season fetched between 50 and 80 THB per kg.

The OAE said the production forecasts remain provisional. Revisions depend on rainfall and weather conditions over the next several months.