Commodities● Neutral
Tariffs and War Cut Aluminum Supply, Lift Prices
U.S. tariffs and Iranian missile damage to Gulf smelters have cut 9% of global aluminum supply, lifting LME prices and squeezing U.S. recyclers. No quick fix is in sight.
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Aluminum has been hit by two U.S. government actions in quick succession, and the combined effect is pushing global prices higher while squeezing domestic recyclers.
President Trump raised the tariff on aluminum imports to 25% in February 2025. The U.S. Midwest premium, a measure of the tariff’s impact on domestic prices, climbed from about $500 a ton to roughly $2,500 a ton by June 9, 2026, according to London Metal Exchange data.
Then came the war. In March 2026, Iranian projectiles struck production facilities at Alba in Bahrain and Emirates Global Aluminum in the UAE. The plants will need repairs through the rest of the year, the report said. That knocked out roughly 9% of global aluminum output, and no other producer has filled the gap as of June.