Taiwan is training its Abrams tank crews to hide and refuel inside its bustling urban sprawl

China fields a fleet of about 6,000 tanks, including roughly 2,200 Type 96 second-generation tanks and 500 Type 15 light tanks. It also has over 1,000 Type 5 amphibious assault vehicles. All three are much lighter than the Abrams and less heavily armored against threats like the American-made tank's main gun. Battles are rarely a simple contest of individual capabilities. Taiwan's armored forces could need to contend with Chinese airpower as well.

If a Chinese land invasion reaches the point of tank-on-tank fighting in Taoyuan or Taipei, the PLA has likely already suppressed or destroyed much of Taiwan's air force, Shih said. Air superiority in that scenario would create conditions for Beijing's fighters and uncrewed aerial vehicles to provide cover for advancing tanks and infantry. Rather than engage directly, a better potential strategy, Shih said, is to "plan a lot of intercept points or intercept areas and to change positions as the combat situation changes."

China also has over 1,200 third-generation Type 99 and Type 99A tanks. These are too heavy for a beach landing. They could be flown into Taiwan.

Taiwan's decision to purchase M1A2Ts from the US in 2019, as part of a $2.2 billion package that included Stinger missiles, drew initial controversy. Critics worried the 73-ton tank would fare poorly on the island's terrain and lighter bridges in rural areas. They argued the funds would have been better spent on other asymmetric warfare tools such as drones.

Shih said Taiwan's new Abrams tanks address a problem its military has confronted before: confidence in the equipment troops may have to take into battle. The island's other tanks include Cold War-era M60A3s and the decades-old CM11 Brave Tiger. During the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, Shih recalled, Taiwan's president asked fighter pilots flying aging F-104 Starfighters and F-5E Tiger IIs whether they felt prepared to face China's air force. "They answered that they were confident in their competence, not the competence of their equipment," Shih said. For Taiwan's tank crews, the Abrams offers a modern platform to confront China's forces should they ever be called to fight.