Strait of Hormuz traffic plunged 66% last week as U.S.-Iran fighting intensified, with tanker crossings dropping to the lowest since the blockade began.
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Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply in the week since the U.S. blockade took effect, with renewed fighting between Washington and Tehran emptying the world's most important energy corridor.
Lloyd's List Intelligence recorded 53 vessel transits in the seven days through July 20, down 66% from 157 the previous week. Tanker and gas carrier movements, the ships that carry most Gulf crude and LNG, fell to 30 from 90.
Kpler data show daily crossings averaged above 20 before July 15, then fell to 16 on that day and to single digits on July 16. Traffic stayed low through the rest of the week with only sporadic recoveries.
The decline reverses weeks of gradual normalization after a mid-June ceasefire had encouraged some shipowners to return. The renewed fighting has again nearly closed the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption.
"Things have slowed down significantly since tensions reignited," said Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd's List Intelligence. "People pull back and reassess, as you'd expect."
Traffic hasn't disappeared. "Every single person has a different risk appetite," Diakun said. "We're still seeing tankers crossing in and out, it hasn't ground to a complete halt." Vessel movements are likely to continue in "ebbs and flows" as shipowners seize brief windows of perceived safety before pulling back whenever tensions escalate, she said.
S&P Global data painted a similar picture. Just 40 vessels transited the strait between July 17 and July 19, averaging roughly 13 crossings a day. Weekly traffic through July 19 fell almost 50% from the prior week.
Commercial ships still made up more than 70% of traffic over the period. Only about one-third were assessed as compliant with maritime restrictions. Iran-linked and sanctioned vessels continued to dominate many movements, suggesting mainstream international shipowners remain reluctant to return.
"The latest escalation shows how expectations of a rapid opening of the Strait were premature," said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee. "The hostilities and reimposed blockade set the conflict back on an escalatory trajectory." He said flows through Hormuz had dropped to around 15% of pre-war levels. Oil could retest $100 a barrel if the current intensity of fighting persists for several weeks or if regional energy infrastructure comes under attack, he told CNBC via email.
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