
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hit 18 vessels per day after the Iran-Saudi truce, up from 12. War-risk premiums dropped to 0.25% from 1.5%.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hit its highest level since the Middle East conflict escalated in late February, after Iran and Saudi Arabia signed a truce. The number of vessels crossing the chokepoint averaged 18 per day in the week ending March 12, up from 12 the prior week, according to tanker-tracking data from Vortexa.
The jump reflects a sharp de-escalation of tensions that had driven insurers to jack up war-risk premiums for Persian Gulf voyages. Several shipping lines had diverted cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope after a string of attacks on commercial ships near the Strait in late February. The truce, brokered by China and announced March 10, included a pledge from both sides to avoid targeting civilian vessels.
Crude oil tankers made up roughly half the traffic increase, Vortexa data show. Liquefied natural gas carriers and container ships accounted for the rest. The return of tanker traffic matters for global oil markets because about 20% of the world's seaborne crude moves through the Strait. A sustained disruption could have pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, traders said.
Insurance costs have fallen sharply since the truce. War-risk premiums for a seven-day voyage through the Persian Gulf dropped to 0.25% of the vessel's insured value from a peak of 1.5% in late February, according to London-based insurance broker Miller. That reduction alone makes it economical for shipowners to resume direct routes rather than the longer Africa detour, which added roughly 10 days and $500,000 in fuel costs per voyage.
The truce does not eliminate all risk. Iran and Saudi Arabia remain on opposite sides of the broader regional conflict, and no formal maritime security agreement has been signed. The immediate threat to commercial shipping has receded enough that the market is pricing in a return to normal operations, several shipping executives said.
The next test for the corridor comes in April, when seasonal demand for crude from Asian refineries typically picks up. If the truce holds, traffic volumes could approach pre-conflict levels of 22-25 vessels per day by mid-year, Vortexa analysts said.
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