Noul is forecast to enter the East Sea on Saturday before making landfall in southern China on Sunday. All three forecasting agencies say it poses no direct threat to Vietnam.
Alpha Score of 42 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, poor value, weak quality, moderate sentiment.
Storm Noul has strengthened as it moves toward the East Sea, with forecasts showing it will hit China's Guangdong Province by Sunday.
As of 7 a.m. Friday, the storm was centered roughly 210 kilometers east of Luzon Island in the Philippines, Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) said. It is moving west-northwest at 25 kph with maximum sustained winds of 74 kph and gusts up to 102 kph.
The storm is expected to enter the northeastern waters of the East Sea by Saturday morning. It should maintain its speed and trajectory while strengthening, with maximum sustained winds reaching 89 kph and gusts up to 133 kph.
By Sunday morning, Noul is forecast to reach the coastal waters of Guangdong. Wind speeds could intensify further, reaching 89-102 kph with gusts up to 149 kph. The storm will then likely shift north-northwest, making landfall in Guangdong at 15-20 kph before weakening back into a tropical depression.
International forecasts align with Vietnam's projections. Japan's Meteorological Agency predicts Noul's sustained winds could reach 102 kph inside the East Sea. The Hong Kong Observatory estimates peak winds of 120 kph. All three agencies agree the storm poses no direct threat to the Vietnamese mainland.
Maritime conditions will deteriorate rapidly starting Friday evening. Strong winds will develop over the northeastern East Sea, escalating to 75-88 kph and producing waves between 3 and 5 meters. Conditions near the storm's center will be more severe, with winds peaking at 117 kph and waves up to 6 meters.
The NCHMF has issued warnings for vessels in those waters, citing high risks of thunderstorms, waterspouts, and extreme seas.
Noul is the second storm in the East Sea this year after Maysak, which struck Vietnam and China in early July. Maysak killed 39 people in southern China, most of them after a dam breach inundated Nanning. Super Typhoon Ba Vi developed over the northwestern Pacific shortly after Maysak but did not cross into the East Sea. It caused damage across mainland China, Taiwan, and Japan, and triggered heavy rains and landslides that killed at least 23 people in the Philippines.
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