Soybean Acreage Bets Rise as India Sowing Data Lags

A smaller crop would tighten domestic supplies of soybean meal and crude soybean oil, both of which India imports in significant volumes. The country buys roughly 55% of its edible oil from overseas, mostly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. Higher domestic soybean output would narrow that gap and cap the pass-through of international vegetable oil prices to Indian consumers.

Traders are watching the next two weeks of sowing data closely. If the shortfall persists through mid-August, the government's first production estimate for the 2025-26 season, due in September, will likely come in below the 12 million tonne target the Agriculture Ministry set in June. That would support domestic soybean prices and squeeze margins for crushers who rely on imported palm oil.

The soybean futures curve on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange has already shifted into backwardation for the November contract, a sign the market expects tight near-term supply. Spot prices in Indore, the benchmark market, held at ₹6,450 per quintal on Thursday, up 3% from the start of the month.