Sims $420M Guidance Upgrade Can't Lift ASX as US Tech Sinks

Australian shares are set for a soft start Wednesday, with ASX 200 futures pointing to a 0.1% decline at the open. The dip comes despite a sharp drop in crude oil – Brent fell to $79.40 a barrel, its lowest in three months – and a renewed US-Iran peace push that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Those tailwinds were overshadowed by a tech sell-off on Wall Street that bled into Asian hours.

RBA governor Michele Bullock's hint that rate cuts could come eventually – possibly in CY26 or early next year – did not shift the early tone either. Traders may be waiting on the Federal Reserve's meeting this week, where a pause is widely expected. The more mundane explanation is profit-taking after Monday's rally.

Sims (ASX:SGM) broke the morning's biggest company news, upgrading its CY26 earnings guidance. Underlying EBIT is now expected between $420 million and $435 million, up from a prior range of $390 million to $410 million. The scrap metal recycler pointed to stronger non-ferrous markets and improving ferrous trading conditions, with its North American metal operations driving the bulk of the revision. The upgrade implies a roughly 8-10% margin improvement at the midpoint, though investors will want to see whether ferrous demand holds through the second half.

Meridian Energy (ASX:MEZ) secured a 35-year approval for its Waitaki Power Scheme, sending shares toward $5. The long-term tenure reduces regulatory renewal risk for the hydro portfolio, which accounts for most of Meridian's generation. The stock had already been pricing in a positive outcome – the approval removes a key overhang for yield-focused holders.

ARN Media (ASX:ARN) agreed to pay Kyle Sandilands $12.1 million over three years to settle all outstanding legal proceedings. The cash outflow is material for a company with a market cap of roughly $200 million, though the settlement removes uncertainty that has dogged the stock. Investors will watch whether ARN can absorb the payment without cutting its dividend.

Elsewhere, SpaceX (unlisted) added another 5% in private trading, extending its post-valuation climb. The move has no direct ASX read-through but underscores the broader risk appetite for high-growth exposures.

In currencies, the Australian dollar bought US 70.6 cents. Iron ore futures in Singapore slipped to $101.55 a tonne, while US natural gas futures sat at $3.25 per gigajoule.

All eyes are on the Fed's decision and the weekly US jobless claims data Thursday. If the tech sell-off deepens, the ASX's resources and energy names may not provide enough offset to keep the index in positive territory this week.