SETM Up 27% YTD, 150% in a Year. S&P 500?

Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM) returned 150% over the past twelve months and 27% year-to-date through June 8, closing at $32.72. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) managed about 12% in the same period.

SETM is not a broad-market fund. It holds a concentrated basket of companies that mine, refine, and process the materials critical to the energy transition and AI infrastructure – copper, lithium, rare earths, uranium. The top ten holdings account for nearly 60% of assets. When the market prices those inputs higher, the ETF moves hard.

That is exactly what happened. The fund’s composition captured the rally in physical materials that began in early 2026. The S&P 500, by contrast, derives less than 3% of its weight from the materials sector. Technology and healthcare dominate the index. SETM’s outperformance stems from a capital rotation toward the back end of the value chain – the metal in the wire, not the software on it.

The run has changed the risk calculus. Many of SETM’s heavyweight holdings now trade at trailing P/E multiples above 30. The same concentration that drove the upside means drawdowns can be sharp. A slowdown in AI data-center construction or a trade agreement that eases rare-earth restrictions would undercut the narrative quickly. There is no diversification cushion.

The next concrete test arrives when second-quarter earnings from the fund’s top positions begin in July. Those reports will show whether the demand for critical materials is accelerating or plateauing. If the numbers confirm the physical buildout story, the outperformance has room. If revenue and margins slow, the valuation gap will get squeezed.

The gap between SETM and the S&P 500 is a window into which kind of growth the market is betting on – tangible inputs versus intangible scale. July earnings will clarify whether that bet is running ahead of reality. For a closer look at the broad market's positioning, see the SPY stock page.