
84.7% of 2025 token launches traded below TGE valuation. The SEC's Rule 195 safe harbor aims to fix disclosures but risks thin guardrails.
Washington is edging toward a rule-based pathway for token launches. The SEC's Token Safe Harbor Proposal 3.0 would create a time-limited exemption for certain offerings under proposed Rule 195, conditioned on disclosures and a three-year path to "Token Maturity." The draft also excludes specific token designs, including tokens regularly bought and burned as a fixed percentage of a centralized business's profits. That narrows the eligible universe before the rule even reaches public comment.
The broader "Regulation Crypto Assets" package, which contains the safe-harbor framework, entered White House OIRA review in early April 2026. That step precedes Federal Register publication. The SEC's Unified Agenda lists related crypto-asset rulemakings at the Proposed Rule stage, including RIN 3235-AN38.
The procedural movement coincides with data that raises questions about today's token-launch outcomes. Memento Research tracked 118 Token Generation Events in 2025. By Dec. 20, 2025, 84.7% traded below their launch valuation. The median fully diluted valuation had fallen roughly 71%.
Industry feedback to the SEC highlights the tension. Andreessen Horowitz urged narrow safe-harbor paths for airdrops and incentive programs. Coin Center pushed for notice-and-comment rulemaking rather than selective no-action or exemptive letters. Trade groups including SIFMA and Fidelity told the agency to preserve core registration and market-structure safeguards for tokenized markets.
Rule 195 itself would function as a Securities Act exemption for "Qualifying Transactions." The framework requires disclosures and a good-faith commitment to reach "Token Maturity" within three years. Companion exemptions under the Exchange Act would address when token activity triggers "exchange," "broker," or "dealer" status. A tailored Investment Company Act exemption would cover certain "Autonomous Systems" that rely on Rule 195.
For founders building tokens that facilitate access to a network or consumer application, a time-boxed exemption could lower the legal friction of involving U.S. participants at launch. A clear "maturity" endpoint could also reduce ambiguity around when a token stops relying on managerial efforts and starts behaving like a product right.
The risk sits on the other side. If the exemptions are drawn broadly or policed inconsistently, intermediaries could restructure around the relief rather than compliance. That dynamic would recreate the structural mismatches that troubled earlier token markets, this time inside a formal framework.
The scope of Rule 195 is intentionally narrow, conditioned on design and disclosures. Many tokenized fundraising structures would remain outside the exemption entirely. That guardrail is the difference between a functional safe harbor and a permission slip for the next cycle's excesses.
Whether the final rule presses hard enough on functional access tokens and demonstrable decentralization or utility by maturity will determine how far the conveyor belt extends.
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